March 19, 2015
When
historians look back on the Middle East decades from now, they might find that
trends in this region after 2015 were determined by the outcome of four seminal
issues and battles that are in play this month.
The
most important one is the struggle within Egypt to achieve a stable governance
and economic system that is at once legitimate in the eyes of its own people
and sustainable for generations ahead, for Egypt’s governance model will
influence many other turbulent Arab lands. The last four years have witnessed a
roller coaster of Egyptian political experimentation and mass action. Yet since
the historic January 2011 revolution, Egyptians have not yet escaped their
legacy of military-managed authoritarian humiliation combined with
socio-economic mediocrity.
The
latest phase of attempts to achieve political legitimacy, socio-economic
efficacy and national stability was launched this week by Field Marshall-turned-President
Abdul Fattah el-Sisi at the three-day international economic conference at
Sharm el-Sheikh. It resulted in announcements of tens of billions of dollars of
foreign investments in infrastructural and economic developments, and the unveiling
of plans for a whole new administrative capital city east of Cairo, to emulate
dramatic and architecturally impressive sudden cities like Dubai.
I
am dubious about this process for Egypt, because it seems to have taken the
neoliberal economic development model that has failed the Arab world in recent
decades to a new level, where Egypt will have the world’s first gated capital.
This decision was made by a handful of army officers and friendly bureaucrats,
and almost totally conceived, designed, financed and validated by foreign
parties. Egyptian citizens were not asked for their suggestions about how to
spend $45 billion to improve conditions in the existing capital. I hope dearly
that Egypt succeeds, stabilizes and prospers, but signs of these goals remain
thin today. Fateful decisions continue to emerge from closed circles of
military men, with Egyptian citizens relegated to enjoying shopping malls as
their highest right. How the ongoing struggle for stability and citizen rights
in Egypt plays itself out will go a long way to defining the Arab condition in
the decades ahead.
The
second fateful contest underway is the military battle for the Iraqi town of
Tikrit, which has been occupied by “Islamic State of Iraq and Syria” (ISIS) for
a year or so. The fight to dislodge ISIS from Tikrit and other parts of
northern Iraq and Syria is just now starting to take place seriously, using a
combination of Iraqi army and civilian forces, Kurdish fighters, and Iranian,
Arab and American-led international support to defeat ISIS and break up the
“Islamic State” it declared last June. How this battle ends will be an
important determinant of the fate of militant Islamism and the condition of
existing Arab states that date from the First World War era.
The
third important development this week is the parliamentary election in Israel,
which will help clarify whether Israel will continue its drift to the
nationalist right and perpetuate the conflict with Palestine and the Arab
world, or will instead move towards a centrist government that offers new
possibilities for a just and negotiated peace agreement. The Arab-Israeli
conflict is the oldest source of radicalization, militarization and
destabilization in the Middle East. Its equitable resolution would
significantly tone down emotions and tensions in the region, and help redirect
national energies and resources to state-building and regional cooperation.
The
Palestinians and all other Arab states in the 2002 Arab Peace Plan have long
clarified their willingness to coexist in peace with Israel, but we have yet to
hear a clear response from Israel. The outcome of this week’s election might
clarify whether Zionism, as it is manifested in the Israeli state, ultimately
affirms the ethos of the conquering warrior, or the ethics of a sage judge who
honors justice for all and above all.
The
fourth fateful issue that is reaching a peak moment of decision these days is
the relationship between Iran and the Western world, as encapsulated by the
P5+1 negotiations with Iran on resolving the two related issues of Iran’s
nuclear capabilities and the international sanctions against it. How this
important negotiation concludes will determine for decades, maybe even
generations, a critical dynamic that has long plagued us all, and remains
unclear today: Whether relations between Middle Eastern powers and the West and
Israel are defined by the international rule of law that is equitably applied
to all states, or by a combination of Western-Israeli neo-colonial and
triumphalist assertions and accusations that are always countered by indigenous
rejection and resistance from within our region.
The
fate of this region remains in the hands of its people. How current events in
Tikrit, Cairo, Tel Aviv and Tehran play themselves out will shape our fate for
generations to come.
Rami G. Khouri is
published twice weekly in the Daily Star.
He was founding director and now senior policy fellow of the Issam Fares
Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American
University of Beirut. On Twitter at: @ramikhouri.
Copyright ©2015 Rami G.
Khouri—distributed by Agence Global