September 01, 2014
The apparent air strike against targets in Tripoli, Libya
last week by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) air force must go down as one of
the most intriguing developments in the modern history of the Arab Gulf states.
The fact that UAE planes allegedly used Egyptian air bases and other facilities
to carry out the attack makes it even more intriguing — a sign of substantive,
sophisticated cooperation by two Arab states to attack targets in a third Arab
state.
This is significant because of two main factors:
the increasing dynamism of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states in using their
military, financial and other assets in the service of political objectives
around the Arab world; and, what this tells us about current GCC priorities in
Arab ideological arenas. Both of these facets of the air attack in Libya
clarify that a major shift is underway in the worldviews and self-perceived
roles of leading Arab states, who now throw their weight around the Middle East
in a direct manner they never did previously. This also partially fills the
vacuum created by the slow disengagement, or repositioning, of global powers
who have been reordering their priorities in the region.
The UAE-Egyptian attack against Libyan militias
associated with Islamists and the so-called Misrata forces may reflect deep
concern, even some panic, in the GCC and Egypt that the current chaotic
situation in Libya could lead to a takeover of the government by Islamists.
That the air strikes did not prevent the targeted Islamist militias from taking
control of Tripoli airport is secondary to the fact that Egypt and the UAE felt
the need to carry out the attack.
This has not happened in a vacuum, but rather
continues a trend that we first witnessed with the outbreak of the Arab
uprisings in late 2010. As citizen-led spontaneous uprisings in several Arab
countries challenged Arab autocrats, removed some, and battled others across
the region, the GCC states led by Saudi Arabia moved quickly to do what they
could to ensure that they remained immune to such developments, and that
ideological conditions remained to their liking. So GCC troops moved into
Bahrain and also engaged in some of the air strikes against the Libyan regime
of Moammar Gaddafi. Gulf states also sent various forms of assistance to rebels
fighting to bring down the Assad regime in Syria, and backed their allies,
friends and proxies in several other Arab countries that witnessed fateful
confrontations between those who wanted to preserve or overthrow the status
quo.
The overriding fear that seems to have prompted
this UAE-Egyptian attack in Libya is that Islamists could come to power through
three available means in the region these days — democratic elections, popular
uprisings, or militia-based fighting. This same concern seems to shape other
GCC policies in the region, such as supporting Jordan, the March
14 camp in Lebanon, and the Sisi government in Egypt. Such policies aim to
prevent two things at all costs: democratic transitions that overturn the
established conservative, security-based political orders, and incumbent
Islamist governments that work closely with either Muslim Brotherhood-type
movements or Iranian-supported Shiite movements.
The UAE and Egypt presumably calculated that
some timely air strikes could deal a fatal blow to the Misrata militias, and
thus help the opposing Zintan militias and the Khalifa Haftar forces prevail in
the battle to control the new Libyan government that is trying to emerge into
the light of day. That did not happen, and the Misrata group prevails for now;
next week things may be different. Indeed, things will keep evolving in a
chaotic way inside Libya for some time, until its two dueling governments
ultimately give way to a single legitimate national government that can get on
with the challenge of state-building.
GCC states are now deeply involved in these
domestic battles across the region, often with different Gulf countries
supporting opposing sides in places like Libya or Lebanon. Qatar and Iran
reportedly have provided support to assorted Islamists in the region, while the
UAE and Saudi Arabia are strongly backing anti-Islamists like the Sisi
government in Egypt. This is a controversial step, to be sure, but it also
represents a certain maturity in the worldview and behavior of GCC countries
that liberally send their troops and money to engage in intense local
ideological and military battles within other Arab states. This, after all, is
how real countries behave in the world, especially now in the Middle East where
local powers need to fill in for the retreating foreign powers.
We are therefore witnessing a coming of age of
Gulf countries that seem determined to play a bigger role in ensuring their own
wellbeing and shaping regional conditions to their linking, instead of waiting
for Americans or Europeans to do this for them. We will find out in the years
ahead how well they master the craft of nationhood in an evolving regional
order.
Rami G. Khouri is editor-at-large of The Daily
Star, and director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and
International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, in Beirut, Lebanon.
On Twitter: @ramikhouri.
Copyright © 2014 Rami G. Khouri—distributed by
Agence Global