Is Israel not involved in the Syrian war?

"Let them bleed". That's the official policy of Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon on the Syrian civil war. On a strategic level, in other words, we are not intervening on anyone's behalf.

From Israel's perspective, this is a war Iran is waging against global Jihad and Syrian Islamists in order to safeguard its most senior client in the Middle East –President Bashar Assad.

Israel has yet to decide which of the protagonists it would prefer to see as its northern neighbor, and until it does - let them continue killing one another.

Israel may not be intervening in the civil war in Syria; but when it comes to Jerusalem's interests, Israel appears to be up to its neck in the Syrian chaos. Nothing happens on the border with Syria by chance. It is extremely unlikely that the Israeli air force jet that killed four terrorists trying to plant a bomb on the Golan Heights border last week was scrambled to the location purely by chance.

Druze Syrian nationalists, under the guidance of Hezbollah, carried out a similar attack some 18 months ago, seriously wounding an Israeli officer. It's safe to assume that the members of that terror cell are no longer with us – and that they did not die of natural causes.

The timing of the attack in January 2015 on the convoy carrying Jihad Mughniyeh, who was responsible for Hezbollah activity on the Golan, was not coincidental, either; it took place just three days after a very belligerent interview by Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, in which he threatened to punish Israel for its alleged attacks in Syria.

Courtesy Ynet

Someone in the Middle East took him seriously and decided to chop off that punitive arm Nasrallah was talking about. Ya'alon said a few days later that Hezbollah's infrastructure on the Golan Heights had been destroyed. He was right; but it didn’t remain that way for long.

The war between the wars

In terms of intelligence gathering and operational input, Israel is making huge efforts along the border with Syria to prevent the fighting from spilling over into its territory. This daily struggle, which the IDF refers to as "the war between the wars," appears to be the reason why Unit 504 (Military Intelligence's human intelligence unit) was recently decorated for its work.

The results of Unit 504's work are clearly evident. It has created a viable deterrence factor and has prevented infiltrations. Indeed, ever since most of the Syrian Army was driven back from the border area and its positions were taken over by radical Islamic organizations such as Jabhat al-Nusra, there has not been a single incident of a Jihadi group attacking Israel. This seems to indicate that Israel has total control – intelligence and operational – over both sides of the border.

There are two exceptions to the "Let them bleed" strategy – when Israel's sovereignty is violated, and when Syria hands over weapons systems to its Hezbollah ally in Lebanon.

Most of Israel's reported attacks on targets inside Syria are low-profile military operations, which do not leave behind fingerprints and for which Israel does not assume responsibility.

Since the outbreak of the civil war in Syria some four years ago, this tactic has proven effective. Syria has refrained from retaliating, too busy with its war for survival.

Syria, Iran and Hezbollah are well aware of Israel's red lines. As long as Israel's attacks do not directly serve the interests of the anti-Assad rebels, they are prepared to swallow their pride.

It's safe to assume that both the choice of targets and the way the military operations are carried out are designed to boost the deterrence factor, to send a message to the other side that it should not try to give Hezbollah weapons that might restrict Israel's freedom to operate in Lebanese airspace.

AFP

This calculated gamble has proven itself thus far – and therein lies the danger. The more time that passes, the more the operational arm and the decision-makers in Jerusalem tend to fall in love with the results, increase the stakes and take more risks.

The selection of targets could become less calculated and Israel could find itself becoming an integral part of the conflict in Syria.

Yes, Hezbollah may end up with fewer advanced and accurate missiles in Lebanon, but the Golan Heights will become a battle zone. The defense minister and the prime minister have a key role to play in guiding the defense establishment to ensure that this does not happen.

The wave of foreign media reports about Israeli strikes in Syria began in January 2013, when Israel was alleged to have carried out an attack on a convoy carrying anti-aircraft missiles bound for Hezbollah. The convoy was attacked in the area of Damascus. There have been nine or 10 reports about similar strikes since then. Israel has not claimed responsibility for any of them.

The frequency of these reports is increasing. A sequence of such incidents creates Israeli involvement in Syria – even if unintended.

Alex Fishman is a senior defense analyst. This article is published courtesy of Ynet.