To follow: some *very* quick analysis which suggests the claim here of rigged results in Wisconsin is probably BS:http://nym.ag/2gI6YLP
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Maybe a more complicated analysis would reveal something, but usually bad news when a finding can't survive a basic sanity check like this.
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Nothing in Pennsylvania, either, whether or not you control for demographics.pic.twitter.com/25moBhv3Zm
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And Michigan has paper ballots everywhere, so not even sure what claim is being made there.pic.twitter.com/4YKrZEhTJl
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@NateSilver538@ForecasterEnten perhaps you boys can explain why there are more votes than ballots and/or registered voters in some WI 1/3 - View other replies
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@NateSilver538@ForecasterEnten Outagamie was audited and updated this morning. Trump lost over 1k votes:https://twitter.com/dansolomon/status/801119244989542400 …
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@NateSilver538 1) Why are you measuring the "shift" instead of predicting vote totals? 2) Why raw values instead of log(values)? [cont'd] - View other replies
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@NateSilver538 Population isn't distributed linearly, and the four largest counties in WI use paper. Could skew analysis. - Show more
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@NateSilver538@OlMucky You are crediting yourself with way too many significant digits in that analysis. - View other replies
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@vielmetti@NateSilver538@OlMucky Don't blame Nate for that. Most stat packages show that many decimal points by default. -
@Danny__Ray@NateSilver538@OlMucky Yes, and most people don't know anything about stat packages (and see a wall of numbers).
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@NateSilver538 also, how many likely clinton voters got turned away due to their new voting restrictions? - View other replies
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@NateSilver538 why does controlling for race/edu impact the paper/electronic disparity? Are those correlated in the data? -
@tdverstynen@NateSilver538 Because paper and electronic ballots are used in different places, and different places have different race/edu - View other replies
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@red_boxer0@NateSilver538 Thanks. But then you have to be careful when using them as nuisance regressors. Shared var cuts both ways. - Show more
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