Defying yet again predictions that New Orleans' post-Hurricane Katrina population would plateau, the number of households in the city continued to increase steadily in the city's fifth year of recovery, though that rate of growth has begun to slow, according to an analysis released Thursday.
The study by the Greater New Orleans Community Data Center shows that the number of households receiving mail in the city increased by 4.6 percent during the past 12 months and now stands at about 80 percent of the total that were getting mail before the storm struck in August 2005.
Extrapolating the data into a population estimate suggests New Orleans now has about 363,000 residents. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated New Orleans' population as of July 2009 at 354,850, down from 455,155 in mid-2005.
According to the new analysis, the rate of growth in New Orleans households fell by about one-fifth from the previous year. Between mid-2008 and mid-2009, the number of households getting mail went up by 5.8 percent.
Despite the slight dip in the growth rate, the latest stats could still be considered promising. The rate of growth measured by the data center for the city's fifth year of recovery is actually slightly higher than the rate for the third year. Many experts predicted that household growth would level off as Katrina receded into the past, on the logic that after three years, most of those who were trying to get back home would have done so.
Instead, the growth rate jumped in the fourth year and has remained relatively robust in the fifth year, the analysis shows.
The neighborhoods that saw the biggest gains in their growth rates were, not surprisingly, areas that have been slow to recover from the storm. They included the Desire development, the Lower 9th Ward, Lakeview, Mid-City and sections of Gentilly.
All told, 66 of New Orleans' 73 neighborhoods have recovered more than half the number of households they had before the levees failed, according to the report.
Of the seven neighborhoods with less than half the population they had prior to Katrina, three are public housing sites that have been demolished to make way for new mixed-income housing, the analysis shows. Others were hard hit by flooding, including the Lower 9th Ward and the West Lake Forest section of eastern New Orleans.
Eight neighborhoods now have a slightly larger number of active households than they did prior to the levee breaches.
Seven of these neighborhoods -- including Algiers Point, Faubourg Marigny and the Lower Garden District -- largely did not flood because they are on the West Bank or in the "sliver by the river," the high ground along the Mississippi that is home to some of the city's oldest settlements.
An exception was Gert Town, which experienced severe flooding. But the area has more active households than before the storm as a result of the revitalization of several multi-unit buildings that were vacant before Katrina.
In general, during the past two years, as residents moved back into their rehabilitated homes or into new or rehabbed apartment buildings in flooded parts of New Orleans' east bank, the consolidation of the city's population in areas that did not flood has started to reverse itself.
For example, 21 neighborhoods lost households from June 2008 to June 2010. Many of these are in parts of the city that did not flood, such as the West Bank and the "sliver."
In the data center's analysis, Plyer said that because neighborhoods vary greatly as to their resources and capacity for organizing, City Hall must provide every area with the tools needed to participate in land-use decisions.
The study recommended that the New Orleans Redevelopment Authority and the state's Office of Community Development should not apply a one-size-fits-all approach to deploying Road Home properties.
"Remaining blight will not be easily remedied by putting Road Home properties on the market," the analysis said. "In neighborhoods with weak market conditions, such properties could be scooped up by speculators with no intention of revitalizing them."
The data center also warned that the ongoing oil disaster in the Gulf could have a dampening impact on the city's housing market.
To guard against that, the analysis said city officials should begin to develop policies that guard against the potential for absentee owners to acquire and "sit on" historic housing stock.
The study also urged the use of disaster Community Development Block Grants still held by the state as well as unspent federal dollars to reduce blight and expand public transportation options to connect neighborhoods to work centers.
Frank Donze can be reached at fdonze@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3328.