Despite the success of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) in successive European Parliament elections and its firm status as Britain's third most popular party, there is a strain within British political commentary that likes to downplay its rise as a temporary aberration. In this narrative, UKIP is a parochial and anachronistic one-man band that is destined to fall once the voters see through it or the party collapses due its lack of professionalism and substance.
The problem for these doomsayers on both the mainstream Left and Right is that it is actually their own vision of politics that is parochial and anachronistic. If they lifted their heads for a moment and looked across the channel to the rest of Western Europe, they would see that right-wing populists parties like UKIP have become fixed points in many countries. Some have even gone into government. And there is no reason why, sooner or later, UKIP will not do both.
In my recent book with Daniele Albertazzi​, Populists in Power, we looked at the experiences of right-wing populist parties in continental Europe over the past decades. As some British commentators hope will be the case for UKIP, there have been a number of populist parties that are "flash parties". After burning brightly initially, the rest was downhill. Much like Pauline Hanson's One Nation, which spent the latter years of the 1990s spooking the major parties with strong electoral results and inflammatory rhetoric before collapsing in a disorganised mess.
However, most electorally successful right-wing populist parties in Western Europe have not crashed and burned. To take just a few examples: The French National Front celebrated its 40th anniversary in 2012, the same year that it achieved its best result to date in a presidential election; the Italian Northern League is going strong over 20 years after its creation, has been in power several times and is currently polling better than ever; the Austrian Freedom Party recovered from a major internal split and a difficult time in government at the beginning of the past decade to bounce back in subsequent elections.
Moreover, all these parties have survived the passage of their "iconic" leaders – Jean-Marie Le Pen, Umberto Bossiand Jorg Haider– without losing their core support. The same is true of the Danish People's Party and the Norwegian Progress Party, both of which have been in existence for several decades and have seen their respective founder-leaders, Pia Kjærsgaardand Carl I. Hagen, resign and be replaced. The Danish People's Party came top for the first time ever in last year's European Parliament election, and the Norwegians are in a government coalition for the first time.
So, while parties such as Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (which famously has no members) may be one-man personal parties whose lifespan seems tied to their founder's political career and others have been flash parties, there are many other right-wing populist parties in Western Europe that have institutionalised, establishing deep roots and lasting structures which can survive moments of crisis.
Not only have existing parties consolidated and grown, but new ones have sprung up in countries which, like Britain were considered "immune" to right-wing populists. Up until a few years ago, Sweden was considered like this. Now, following one good election after the other, the radical right-wing populist Sweden Democrats are the third party in parliament and hold the balance of power. As a result, the centre-right and centre-left have been forced into a long-term collaboration agreement – something that will just bolster the populist claim that mainstream parties are all the same.
This raises the question of how mainstream parties, especially those of the centre-right, should treat successful right-wing populists. Should they ostracise them or co-opt them? Whereas the centre-right has chosen to exclude them in countries such as Sweden and France, right-wing populists have taken their seats at the cabinet table in other EU states like Italy and Austria. The hope for moderates in accommodating right-wing populists is that, apart from enabling the centre-right to form a government, the embrace of power will soften and weaken the new arrivals.
In our research, we found that this does not always occur. For example, in Italy and Switzerland, right-wing populists have been able to achieve key policy victories and survive the experience of government, without toning down their rhetoric, or losing the support of voters and party members.
What is happening in Britain now is that it is catching up with the rest of Western Europe. Two-party politics and single-party governments with large majorities are dead. The reality of the present and future in a politically fragmented country like 21st-century Britain is multi-party coalitions. Including, perhaps, right-wing populists.
Nigel Farage is no Pauline Hanson and UKIP is no One Nation. UKIP is here to stay. The irony is that a party which has Britain leaving Europe as one its key issues is helping bring European-style politics to Britain. With a hung parliament looking ever more likely and the difference between rival coalitions possibly just a couple of seats, David Cameron may well now be debating whether he should follow some of his centre-right counterparts on the continent and do a deal with his populist challenger.
Duncan McDonnell is a senior lecturer in politics at Griffith University, Brisbane. He is the author of Populists in Power.
The hope for moderates in accommodating right-wing populists is that, apart from enabling the centre-right to form a government, the embrace of power will soften and weaken the new arrivals.
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