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Egyptian Revolution:
A Demographic Structural Analysis
Andrey V. Korotayev, Russian State University for the Humanities
Julia V. Zinkina, Russian Academy of Sciences
The "Day of Revolt" on 25 January
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Abstract: It is not surprising that Mubarak’s
administration “overlooked” the social explosion. Indeed, statistical
data righteously claimed that the country was developing very
successfully. Economic growth rates were high (even in the crisis
years). Poverty and inequality levels were among the lowest in the Third
World. Global food prices were rising, but the government was taking
serious measures to mitigate their effect on the poorest layers of the
population. Unemployment level (in per cent) was less than in many
developed countries of the world and, moreover, was declining, and so
were population growth rates. What would be the grounds to expect a
full-scale social explosion? Of course, the administration had a sort of
reliable information on the presence of certain groups of dissident
“bloggers”, but how could one expect that they would be able to inspire
to go to the Tahrir any great masses of people? It was even more
difficult to figure out that Mubarak’s regime would be painfully struck
by its own modernization successes of the 1980s, which led to the sharp
decline of crude death rate and especially of infant and child mortality
in 1975–1990. Without these successes many young Egyptians vehemently
demanding Mubarak’s resignation (or even death) would have been destined
to die in early childhood and simply would not have survived to come
out to the Tahrir Square.
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SOURCES: Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar 13 (2011): 139-169; Middle East Studies Online Journal- ISSN 2109-9618- Issue n°5. Volume 2 (2011): 57-95.
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Highlighting the events of Egyptian Revolution 2011, various massmedia tried to explain what had caused the riots. Most explanations followed the same pattern, blaming economic stagnation, poverty, inequality, corruption and unemployment. A typical explanation is that “Egyptians have the same complaints that drove Tunisians onto the streets: surging food prices, poverty, unemployment and authoritarian rule that smothers public protests quickly and often brutally”. Such unanimity incited us to investigate to what extent those accusations reflected the Egyptian reality.
So we decided to take each of the above mentioned “revolution causes” and to look into the actual dynamics of the relevant socioeconomic indicators in the years preceding the Egyptian revolution.
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