Monthly Outlook

Summary

Often warm and dry, but is there an end in sight?

Very warm on Wednesday and Thursday, but there will be the risk of thunderstorms to end the working week, and the weekend should be relatively cool. After a cool and 'unsettled' start, next week will be largely dry and very warm. The fine, dry weather will continue towards mid-month, but we may see more unsettled, wetter weather later in August.

Tuesday 24 July—Sunday 29 July

Thunderstorms then a 'cool' weekend

Most parts of the UK will have a fine, dry day on Wednesday with a lot of sunshine, although this may be rather hazy in some areas. The far north-west of Scotland is likely to see showers or rain, and there will be the chance of some showers developing over South East England in the afternoon and evening. It will be another warm day with temperatures reaching the mid-to hightwenties or low thirties Celsius in most areas, although some western parts of the UK will be a little cooler. Thursday will see the first signs of a change in the weather. A cold front will move in from the west during the day, this perhaps bringing showery outbreaks of rain to Northern Ireland and the far west of Scotland by evening. Most of the rest of the country will be fine and dry though.Thursday night will see the cold front edging a little further east, but rain will still only affect Northern Ireland and western Scotland. However, an area of heavy showers and rain is likely to push into southern England on Thursday night, this perhaps containing some heavy, thundery downpours. The main uncertainty is exactly which parts of England (and perhaps Wales) will be affected.Friday will see showers moving northwards across the UK, probably affecting central and eastern England, where there will be a chance of thundery downpours. The showers will gradually move into the North Sea, followed by the cold front which will bring rain to other areas of the UK during Friday. The weekend looks to be dry and bright for many areas, and it will feel cooler with fresher air having moved in from the west behind the cold front. There may be some rain in the west, most likely on Sunday.

Monday 30 July—Sunday 5 August

Generally dry and very warm

The last Monday of July looks to be relatively cool and unsettled by recent standards. Low pressure is expected to be close the north-west of the country, with associated showers and rain affecting many areas of the UK through. However, the far South East of England may miss the rain on Monday, and by Tuesday most of the country will be dry again as high pressure starts to reassert itself. The main patterns for next week are for the weather to be largely dry after Monday, although fronts moving in from the Atlantic may bring outbreak of rain to the north-west of the country at times. Central, southern and eastern areas look largely dry though and there will be a good
deal of sunshine. After the relatively cool start to the week, temperatures are expected to gradually rise and by the end of the week we are likely to be seeing highs in the upper-twenties or low thirties Celsius. It is probably worth noting that there is a small risk of some very warm air moving northwards
towards the UK at the end of next week, and it could become very hot. However, this is a small risk and at this range, it has to be said that it is very uncertain.

Monday 6 August—Sunday 19 August

Will the dry, warm weather continue?

There probably won't be any rapid changes to the overall pressure pattern heading into the first full week of August. As a result, central, southern and eastern areas are most likely to have a lot of dry weather with sunny periods and temperatures well above normal for the time of year. The north and west will be more prone to spells of cooler weather, perhaps with rain at times. However, it looks likely that the ridge of high pressure centred over Scandinavia will start to spread westwards.This will have the effect of bringing dry weather to most parts of the UK, and whilst temperatures may moderate, it will remain warmer than average.The following week, beginning the 13th August, may see low pressure near the south-west of the UK, this increasing the chances of rain in southern and south-western parts of the country.
Temperatures, whilst still above average, are likely to be nearer average too. However, as always there is some uncertainty at this range. There is a chance, maybe around 25 to 30%, that high pressure will cling on and we will see a continuation of the dry and warm (perhaps very warm) weather.

Next Update

Will the second half of August see a change to wetter and cooler weather?