Nigerian email scams royally obvious for good reason, study says
It may be the worst time in history to be a Nigerian in need. Especially if you’re a former prince.
Scam emails with promises of easy riches have become so psychically entangled with the West African republic, it’s a wonder swindlers haven’t adapted their yarns to claim a different origin. At this point, only a fool would see Nigeria in a message and not immediately hit delete.
But Microsoft Research says that’s exactly the point.
In a new white paper, it’s proposed that the transparent nature of nefarious emails is a way of eliminating false positives, helping ensure that only the intended targets — extremely naive people willing to give money to a stranger — will respond. Nigerian “royalty,” after all, have no time to waste on dead ends.
“Since gullibility is unobservable, the best strategy is to get those who possess this quality to self-identify. An email with tales of fabulous amounts of money and West African corruption will strike all but the most gullible as bizarre,” says Cormac Herley, principal researcher with Microsoft Research.
“It will be figured out by anyone savvy enough to use a search engine . . . It won’t be pursued by anyone who consults sensible family or friends, or who reads any of the advice banks and money transfer agencies make available. Those who remain are the scammers’ ideal targets.”
Canadian author Will Ferguson, who researched these schemes for his new book 419 (a title referring to the section of Nigerian penal code that addresses fraud) relays an alternate explanation for the comical text.
“A former 419er said the reason they send out these crudely written emails is not to get the really gullible but the really greedy: people who think, ‘Oh my God, these African rubes are sitting on millions of dollars and what’s stopping me from keeping all of it?'” says Ferguson.
His own theory, however, is that the emails’ hyperbolic content acts — probably accidentally — as a way of keeping North Americans far from any natural frame of reference.
“The more outlandish the con, the more successful,” says Ferguson. “Because the more rational the setup, the more the (victim) becomes rational and starts to think about it, realizing that it doesn’t add up.”
John Aycock, associate professor of computer science at the University of Calgary, proposes yet another possibility: Fraudsters are simply latching onto a time-tested formula.
“You don’t want to come away with the idea Nigerian scammers have optimized their email this way on purpose, as that ignores about 180 years of history,” says Aycock.
“The oldest example I have is from about 1830, and the text is surprisingly unchanged from what we get in our Inboxes today: ‘Sir, you will be doubtlessly be astonished to be receiving a letter from a person unknown to you, who is about to ask a favour from you . . .’ and goes on to talk of a casket containing 16,000 francs in gold and the diamonds of a late marchioness.”
Aycock concludes that the best explanation for Nigerian email scams’ colourful approach is, simply, inertia.
“Someone almost two centuries ago hit on a scheme that worked, sometimes, and still sometimes works, and that’s good enough.”
