The Lord of the IslesIntrigue in the world’s most coup-prone island paradise

RUNNING A MINORITY government is rarely easy. When your party has just one seat in parliament, it should be impossible. Yet Azali Assoumani, the president of the Comoros (pictured), has largely been given a free hand by MPs. They did not demur when he dissolved the anti-corruption authority after returning to office in 2016, nor when he suspended the constitutional court in April. “Whenever there is a key vote, the government wins,” says Ibrahim Soulé, an MP for Juwa, an opposition party.

The Comoros is corrupt, so bribery may explain the parliamentary acquiescence. Since independence from France in 1975, there have been at least 21 coup attempts (not all have been successful). Mr Azali himself led one in 1999. A power-sharing deal restored some stability in 2001. But in July the president forced through a referendum that ruined the agreement. The presidency will no longer rotate among the country’s three querulous islands. Mr Azali, previously allowed a single five-year term, can stand for another two.

Many of the islanders are seething. Intrigue abounds in the twisting alleys of Mutsamudu, the regional capital of Anjouan, the second-largest of the three main islands. In October masked gunmen seized control of its old town. Two people were killed in a week-long army counter-offensive. Who was behind the raid, or what the attackers wanted, is unknown. The government arrested Anjouan’s Juwa governor, accusing him of insurrection. But it cannot explain how the fighters slipped through a tight army cordon and sailed away.

Anjouan and Moheli, the smallest island, have long feared subjugation by Grande Comore, the biggest. In 1997 both tried to secede, asking to be recolonised. France refused. Mr Azali is from Grande Comore, so suspicions are mounting again. “Anjouan is a volcano that could erupt at any moment,” says a local journalist.

Yet opposition to Mr Azali is growing even on Grande Comore. Allies have scarpered, including his party chairman. Juwa says 100 of its members have been arrested, including its leader. Private radio stations have been closed. Having called an early election in March, the president is removing potential rivals, critics say.

Mr Azali has his defenders. With just 800,000 people, the Comoros can ill afford to run both central and regional administrations, they say. Snarl-ups have prevented the country from exploiting its oil and gas reserves. The new system should be more stable and allow the president to pursue development, says the government.

Western governments are still worried. Comorians fleeing poverty and repression often end up on Mayotte, a nearby French-owned island. The far right in France claims that immigration to this overcrowded territory could be a back way into the motherland.

The African Union has tried to mediate. But Mr Azali was intractable and the opposition walked out. Isolated at home and in the West, he is buttering up new allies. Last month he won Russian backing after withdrawing Comorian recognition of Kosovo. And he has aligned with Saudi Arabia, severing ties with Qatar.

Yet the Comorian parliament has finally found some backbone. In November MPs declined to debate a bill to let Mr Azali rule by decree and to stop the electoral commission from overseeing next year’s poll. Furious, the president sacked the opposition’s representative on the commission. At the end of a 90-minute speech denouncing MPs and promising to rule without them, he tumbled to the ground, pulling the podium down on top of himself. Some Comorians hope that their president, impervious to all else, may be stopped by ill health.