Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Comment | Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philippe Aghion | Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Franklin Allen | Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Pol Antras | Harvard | Uncertain | 7 |
Historical evidence doesn't make me too pessimistic but some adjustment to labor market policies might be necessary to avoid transition cost |
Bio/Vote History |
Richard Baldwin | The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Timothy J. Besley | LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Olivier Blanchard | Peterson Institute | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History | |
Nicholas Bloom | Stanford | Uncertain | 1 | Bio/Vote History | |
Richard William Blundell | University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré | Paris School of Economics | Agree | 7 | Bio/Vote History | |
Elena Carletti | Bocconi | Uncertain | 4 | Bio/Vote History | |
Jean-Pierre Danthine | Paris School of Economics | Agree | 7 |
Some advanced countries have adequate institutions to facilitate the transition and a demography foreboding a shortage of workers. |
Bio/Vote History |
Paul De Grauwe | LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Jan Eeckhout | University College London | Disagree | 9 |
The problem may be that wages are low or that work is unsatisfactory, but not long term unemployment. Labor force participation may decline. |
Bio/Vote History |
Ernst Fehr | Universität Zurich | Disagree | 7 | Bio/Vote History | |
Xavier Freixas | Universitat Pompeu Fabra | Strongly Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History | |
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln | Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Uncertain | 3 | Bio/Vote History | |
Jordi Galí | Universitat Pompeu Fabra | Agree | 7 |
Must be true in the short run, unless it takes place in the context of expanding aggregate demand, which would facilitate reabsoption |
Bio/Vote History |
Luis Garicano | LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Francesco Giavazzi | Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Rachel Griffith | University of Manchester | Agree | 5 | Bio/Vote History | |
Veronica Guerrieri | Chicago Booth | Uncertain | 7 | Bio/Vote History | |
Luigi Guiso | Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Uncertain | 5 |
robots may be accompanied by other innovations that can abosorb the workers laid off, but exent of this is uncertain |
Bio/Vote History |
Martin Hellwig | Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | No Opinion |
the answer depends a lot on what alternative employment (at possibly lower wages) is available. |
Bio/Vote History | |
Patrick Honohan | Trinity College Dublin | Uncertain | 2 |
Speed of innovation quite unclear; suppressing labour market and training response loads the question in direction of unemployment. |
Bio/Vote History |
Henrik Kleven | Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Jan Pieter Krahnen | Goethe University Frankfurt | Disagree | 7 |
We will see lots of changes, not only robots coming in. But also very different ways of working, leading also to shorter employment spells. |
Bio/Vote History |
Per Krusell | Stockholm University | Disagree | 8 |
Perhaps unemployment could rise in the short run but employment will respond to labor supply: there will be jobs. |
Bio/Vote History |
Botond Kőszegi | Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Eliana La Ferrara | Bocconi | Agree | 4 | Bio/Vote History | |
Christian Leuz | Chicago Booth | Uncertain | 4 |
History&prior; evidence disagree. Some job polarization&lots; of complementarity. Could AI&robots; be different? Yes, but so far very uncertain -see background information here -see background information here |
Bio/Vote History |
Costas Meghir | Yale | Uncertain | 4 |
The outcome will depend on the institutional structure. More flexible labor markets will allow a faster adjustment |
Bio/Vote History |
Peter Neary | Oxford | Disagree | 6 |
Some workers will be displaced, some will retrain, the new technology is likely to diffuse slowly, especially in service industries. |
Bio/Vote History |
Kevin O'Rourke | Oxford | Uncertain | 8 | Bio/Vote History | |
Marco Pagano | Università di Napoli Federico II | Agree | 5 | Bio/Vote History | |
Lubos Pastor | Chicago Booth | Agree | 4 |
Job training needs to change |
Bio/Vote History |
Torsten Persson | Stockholm University | Agree | 4 | Bio/Vote History | |
Christopher Pissarides | LSE | Strongly Disagree | 10 |
Jobs will be destroyed in some sectors but created in other sectors. Sectoral shifts are common without large unemployment hikes |
Bio/Vote History |
Richard Portes | London Business School | Disagree | 5 |
Unemployment depends on macro policies. |
Bio/Vote History |
Canice Prendergast | Chicago Booth | Agree | 9 | Bio/Vote History | |
Lucrezia Reichlin | London Business School | Disagree | 5 | Bio/Vote History | |
Rafael Repullo | CEMFI | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History | |
Hélène Rey | London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Antoinette Schoar | MIT | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History | |
John Van Reenen | MIT | Disagree | 6 |
Hard to predict impact of technology on jobs with our current levels of knowledge. Innovation often has positive as well as negative effects -see background information here |
Bio/Vote History |
John Vickers | Oxford | Agree | 3 | Bio/Vote History | |
Hans-Joachim Voth | University of Zurich | Uncertain | 7 | Bio/Vote History | |
Beatrice Weder di Mauro | Gutenberg University Mainz and INSEAD | Uncertain | 10 | Bio/Vote History | |
Karl Whelan | University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Charles Wyplosz | The Graduate Institute Geneva | Disagree | 5 | Bio/Vote History | |
Fabrizio Zilibotti | Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Comment | Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philippe Aghion | Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Franklin Allen | Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Pol Antras | Harvard | Strongly Agree | 9 |
It seems pretty clear that the potential gains would outweigh the losses. |
Bio/Vote History |
Richard Baldwin | The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Timothy J. Besley | LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Olivier Blanchard | Peterson Institute | Agree | 7 | Bio/Vote History | |
Nicholas Bloom | Stanford | Strongly Agree | 8 | Bio/Vote History | |
Richard William Blundell | University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré | Paris School of Economics | Agree | 7 |
In theory yes. However the workers want jobs, not transfers. Very difficult during the transition. |
Bio/Vote History |
Elena Carletti | Bocconi | Disagree | 4 | Bio/Vote History | |
Jean-Pierre Danthine | Paris School of Economics | Agree | 3 |
Compensating the losers will require fiscal adaptations in order to improve the scope for redistribution |
Bio/Vote History |
Paul De Grauwe | LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Jan Eeckhout | University College London | Uncertain | 8 |
It all depends how the ownership of the AI technology is distributed. AI by itself may be very effective at concentrating ownership. |
Bio/Vote History |
Ernst Fehr | Universität Zurich | Strongly Agree | 9 | Bio/Vote History | |
Xavier Freixas | Universitat Pompeu Fabra | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History | |
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln | Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Agree | 3 | Bio/Vote History | |
Jordi Galí | Universitat Pompeu Fabra | Uncertain | 7 |
True in theory. In practice, it will depend on the transfers system in place and other elements determined by the political process |
Bio/Vote History |
Luis Garicano | LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Francesco Giavazzi | Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Rachel Griffith | University of Manchester | Agree | 5 | Bio/Vote History | |
Veronica Guerrieri | Chicago Booth | Uncertain | 7 | Bio/Vote History | |
Luigi Guiso | Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Uncertain | 1 | Bio/Vote History | |
Martin Hellwig | Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Uncertain | 6 |
The answer depends on how the various frictions in the labour market play out. No general answer is available. |
Bio/Vote History |
Patrick Honohan | Trinity College Dublin | Agree | 5 | Bio/Vote History | |
Henrik Kleven | Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Jan Pieter Krahnen | Goethe University Frankfurt | Agree | 8 |
Absolutely. But mind the term "could". Whether or not it happens depends critically on fundamental adjustments of our societal architecture. |
Bio/Vote History |
Per Krusell | Stockholm University | Strongly Agree | 9 |
If it is profitable to employ robots it is very likely more efficient. So almost by definition they increase production efficiency. |
Bio/Vote History |
Botond Kőszegi | Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Eliana La Ferrara | Bocconi | Uncertain | 5 |
The key point is whether there is political will to redistribute these benefits |
Bio/Vote History |
Christian Leuz | Chicago Booth | Agree | 4 |
Assuming firms generally make tech investments when NPV positive, gains should be large enough. But not clear that the transfers take place. |
Bio/Vote History |
Costas Meghir | Yale | Agree | 6 |
Again - depends on the institutional structure |
Bio/Vote History |
Peter Neary | Oxford | Agree | 7 |
I agree in principle, though compensation rarely occurs in practice and would require Nordic levels of income support and retraining. |
Bio/Vote History |
Kevin O'Rourke | Oxford | No Opinion |
Kaldor-Hicks: seriously? |
Bio/Vote History | |
Marco Pagano | Università di Napoli Federico II | Agree | 3 | Bio/Vote History | |
Lubos Pastor | Chicago Booth | Strongly Agree | 4 |
Higher productivity means a bigger pie |
Bio/Vote History |
Torsten Persson | Stockholm University | Agree | 4 |
That compensation is possible in principle does not mean that it is likely to take place in practice. |
Bio/Vote History |
Christopher Pissarides | LSE | Strongly Agree | 10 |
There will be substantial productivity gains but government needs to take action to destribute them across negatively affetced groups |
Bio/Vote History |
Richard Portes | London Business School | Agree | 6 |
The question is not whether they could be compensated, but whether they will. Experience suggests not. |
Bio/Vote History |
Canice Prendergast | Chicago Booth | Uncertain | 7 | Bio/Vote History | |
Lucrezia Reichlin | London Business School | Disagree | 5 | Bio/Vote History | |
Rafael Repullo | CEMFI | Uncertain | 6 | Bio/Vote History | |
Hélène Rey | London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Antoinette Schoar | MIT | Agree | 8 | Bio/Vote History | |
John Van Reenen | MIT | Strongly Agree | 9 |
Technology expands the economic pie, so definitely offers chances to share greater wealth -see background information here |
Bio/Vote History |
John Vickers | Oxford | Agree | 3 | Bio/Vote History | |
Hans-Joachim Voth | University of Zurich | Agree | 5 | Bio/Vote History | |
Beatrice Weder di Mauro | Gutenberg University Mainz and INSEAD | Agree | 5 | Bio/Vote History | |
Karl Whelan | University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||
Charles Wyplosz | The Graduate Institute Geneva | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History | |
Fabrizio Zilibotti | Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | ||