Sealladh Mìosail

Rain for Scotland this week but drier elsewhere. The weekend is looking wet and windy for most parts on Sunday. Temperatures are on the mild side for late January. Into February the weather looks unsettled and largely mild.

On Wednesday winds will begin to strengthen as a band of rain moves over Northern Ireland, Scotland and Northern England through the afternoon. The rain eases as it continues south on Thursday clearing everywhere by midday. Some isolated showers may develop over northern Scotland. Friday starts dry for most, but Scotland and Northern England will have some outbreaks of rain later. Temperatures will be 2-4C above average.

Saturday will see outbreaks of rain for just about anywhere except Southern England. The rain will die out through the afternoon. On Sunday, rain and wind will move across from the west to affect all parts. The rain could be heavy at times although Northern Scotland may come off best with the more persistent rain further south. The rain clears by late evening. Temperatures over the weekend will be around 2C above average.

Next week high pressure will be stationed over the Eastern Atlantic that will extend across Western Europe at times. Low-pressure systems lie near Iceland and Northwest Russia. Towards the end of the week, the high pressure may become centred over the UK. The location of the high will vary over the week allowing for the occasional frontal system to affect us.

Isolated showers are a risk for most parts on Monday. A band of rain moves over Scotland and Northern Ireland early on Tuesday. The rain moves over Wales and England through the day then largely clears by the evening. The Western Isles may see some further light rain. This pattern carries over into Wednesday, but Thursday looks dry for most areas. The fair weather should persist into Friday. Weekday temperatures will be 2-3C above average.

The weekend is provisionally looking dry for England and Wales but with some outbreaks of rain over Northern Ireland and Scotland. It may also be on the windy side with temperatures around 1-2C above average.

Over the first part of this period, low pressure is favoured over Iceland and the Norwegian Sea with high pressure over the Eastern Atlantic extending over Western Europe. This would maintain the near seasonal to mild temperatures over the UK with some enhanced wind and rain for northern parts.

Further ahead the weather models are performing poorly. We favour high pressure over the Northeast Atlantic extending to Europe with low pressure near Iceland and Northern Scandinavia. This would keep temperatures mild.

If a deeper low pressure develops over Scandinavia while the Atlantic high does not extend so far across Europe then we would see more unsettled conditions.

Will the seasonal temperatures persist into late February or will there be any signals for a colder period