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2017, Eurasia Diary
In 2001 the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries signed the Economic Agreement, which envisioned the establishment of a GCC Monetary Union in 2010. The project faced its biggest setback in 2009, when the UAE (United Arab Emirates) after Oman, decided to withdraw. In this dissertation, I examine the opt-out of the UAE from the Monetary Union by studying the economic consequences of participation in the Monetary Union and the ideational factors that have influenced the decision to withdraw. I will argue that the withdrawal mainly can be explained by ideational factors, which is symbolised by the fact that the withdrawal has been caused by a diplomatic rift with over the location of the Central Bank of the Monetary Union. The decision to locate the Central Bank has been perceived as an indication that Saudi Arabia intends to dominate the future Monetary Union, which clashes with a more assertive UAE that aims to carve out a more independent role for itself and refuses to accept Saudi domination. In addition, the decision has touched upon the pride of the UAE, as it feels entitled to hosting the Central Bank as there is a perception that it outperforms other GCC countries in the economic sphere. Furthermore, it should be noted that ideational factors have been allowed to play an important role as there are limited economic imperatives for the UAE to participate in the Monetary Union, while some costs can be associated with participation. On top of that, the centralised, closed and personalised decision-making structure in the UAE has contributed to the importance of ideational factors, as there are no checks on the power of the ruling elite, there is limited accountability and there is a fear among the ruling elite to give away sovereignty in order to preserve their power position.
The foreign policy literature on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is plentiful, and cer- tainly has a rich and volatile sample to consider. Foreign policy analysis of the Gulf, however, is often hindered by the ‘black box’ of leadership within the Gulf Arab states. Our theories, including rentierism, simplify rather than tease out the idiosyncrasies between Gulf states and their mechanisms of policy making. The purpose of this workshop1 and the papers presented here is to address drivers of foreign policy within GCC member-states, and sub- sequent interaction and effect of these policies in neighbouring countries. What we might also achieve is some shared conceptual clarity on frameworks for analysing foreign policy in the subregion, and to put forward some hypotheses about how the process of state-building in the region is changing both the agents and the practice of policy making.
Obviously, the Iranian issue is not the real issue in the current GCC crisis. However, accusing Qatar of being too close to Iran and its militias is just an effective way of diverting attention in order to appeal to the Arab public, and the Saudi public in particular, which harbors strong anti-Iranian sentiments due to the mullah regime's subversive policies and the activities of the Quds Force in the Arab region in recent years.
The Political Economy of Communication
A New Kind of Information Warfare? Cyber-conflict and the Gulf crisis 2010–20172018 •
This article analyses the current Gulf crisis that started in May 2017 by posing the following question. Did an information war unfold or did the crisis events that took place merely illustrate yet another round of propaganda and disinformation contests among Gulf participants and their backers? Accordingly, I will focus on five central themes. First, the theoretical underpinning and key concepts concerning Information Warfare (and related notions like Hacktivism and Cyber War) will be discussed in relation to information space and the media sphere. The second theme explores the historical, strategic, and geopolitical dynamics that led to the crisis and looks closely at the rivalries taking place in the region, with a particular focus on the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and cyber threats, the third theme reviews some of the most notorious cyber attacks that occurred in the Gulf region up until the Trump Presidency. The fourth theme sheds some light on recent manifestations of the Gulf crisis and the anti-Qatar coalition’s modus operandi. Fifthly, Qatar’s response to the crisis will be reviewed and evaluated.
This paper examine the discourse and practices of the two most active GCC countries in the Mediterranean, and will conduct its analysis through a discussion of such highlighted issues as economy, migration and political ideas. Adopting content discourse analysis, this paper studies documents from Saudi Arabia and Qatar to help better understand these countries’ changing role and influence, as well as their policies and role perceptions in the Mediterranean area. Investigating their alternative discourses, the paper will highlight the conflicting, competing and also converging policies and visions of these actors regarding EU policies.
The ongoing crisis in Gulf geopolitics appeared to have targeted Qatar’s independent policies. Yet, in the background, the spoiler was Iran and Turkey’s hegemonic- even if clashing- pretensions due to a series of favorable regional and global developments. Therefore, the re-emergence of Iran and Turkey as rising powers in the broader region has turned the Saudi-led coalition apprehensive about outsider influence. Qatar tilted towards Turkish foreign policy goals in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and traditionally sought an appeasing “noconflict” policy against Iran. Against the ever-changing complexity of regional and global developments, largely defined as “the new Middle East Cold War,” Qatar faced a backlash from the Saudi-led Gulf core, eventually settling for minimized options in foreign and security policy. Beyond the current escalatory rhetoric, Qatar has security and economic ties with Turkey and Western powers, which overshadow Iran’s minimal influence in the Gulf sheikhdom. The paper analyses both Turkish and Iranian policies in the Gulf and offers possible policy alternatives for Qatar to ward off against the threats of isolation and containment.
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mike
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