, Columnists
The Inverted Yield Curve Deserves Better Scrutiny
Rather than look at Treasuries, it’s better to examine corporate bonds for a true sense of the economic outlook.
The bond market has turned upside down.
Photographer: Getty Images/Hulton ArchiveThis article is for subscribers only.
If you want to know what’s likely to happen next, should you take your cue from history? It’s a fact that every U.S. recession since the 1960s was preceded by a year or so by an inversion of the Treasury yield curve, which happens when long-term rates drop below those of shorter-dated bonds.
On March 22, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.42 percent, dropping below rates on three-month bills for the first time since July 2007. The logical conclusion is that if a recession followed the past six inversions, the next one must be on the way.