Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-m8qmq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-18T18:04:56.925Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946–1986

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 April 2017

Zeev Maoz
Affiliation:
University of Haifa
Bruce Russett
Affiliation:
Yale University

Abstract

Democratic states are in general about as conflict- and war-prone as nondemocracies, but democracies have rarely clashed with one another in violent conflict. We first show that democracy, as well as other factors, accounts for the relative lack of conflict. Then we examine two explanatory models. The normative model suggests that democracies do not fight each other because norms of compromise and cooperation prevent their conflicts of interest from escalating into violent clashes. The structural model asserts that complex political mobilization processes impose institutional constraints on the leaders of two democracies confronting each other to make violent conflict unfeasible. Using different data sets of international conflict and a multiplicity of indicators, we find that (1) democracy, in and of itself, has a consistent and robust negative effect on the likelihood of conflict or escalation in a dyad; (2) both the normative and structural models are supported by the data; and (3) support for the normative model is more robust and consistent.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1993

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Axelrod, Robert. 1984. The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Axelrod, Robert. 1986. “An Evolutionary Theory of Norms.” American Political Science Review 80:10951112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Azar, Edward E. 1980. “The Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB) Project.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 24:379403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banks, Arthur. 1986. Cross-National Time-Series Data File. Binghamton: State University of New York.Google Scholar
Behr, Roy L. 1980. “Nice Guys Finish Last … Sometimes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 25:289300.Google Scholar
Brecher, Michael, and Wilkenfeld, Jonathan. 1989. Crisis in the Twentieth Century. New York: Pergamon.Google Scholar
Brecher, Michael, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, and Moser, Sheila. 1988. Handbook of International Crises. New York: Pergamon.Google Scholar
Bremer, Stuart. 1992. “Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816–1965.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36:309–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Lalman, David. 1992. War and Reason. New Haven: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, Steve. 1984. “Mirror, Mirror, on the Wall … Are the Freer Countries More Pacific?Journal of Conflict Resolution 28:617–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dacey, Raymond, and Pendegraft, Norman. 1988. “The Optimality of Tit-for-Tat.” International Interactions 15:4564.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dixon, William J. 1993. “Democracy and the Management of International Conflict.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 37:4268.Google Scholar
Doyle, Michael. 1986. “Liberalism and World Politics.” American Political Science Review 80:1151–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duvall, Raymond, and Shamir, Michal. 1980. “Indicators from Errors: Cross-National Time-Series Measures of Repressive Dispositions of Governments.” In Indicators Systems for Political, Economic, and Social Analysis, ed. Taylor, Charles L.. Cambridge, MA: Oelgeschlager, Gunn, & Hain.Google Scholar
Eckstein, Harry S., and Gurr, Ted Robert. 1975. Patterns of Authority: A Structural Basis for Political Inquiry. New York: Wiley-Interscience.Google Scholar
Ember, Carol R., Ember, Melvin, and Russett, Bruce. 1992. “Peace between Participatory Polities: A Cross-National Test of the ‘Democracies Rarely Fight Each Other’ Hypothesis. World Politics 44:573–93.Google Scholar
Fienberg, Stephen E. 1980. The Analysis of Cross-Classified Categorical Data. Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press.Google Scholar
Geller, Daniel S., and Jones, Daniel M.. 1991. “The Effect of Dynamic and Static Balances on Conflict Escalation in Rival Dyads.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington.Google Scholar
Gochman, Charles S., and Maoz, Zeev. 1984. “Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1976.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 29:585615.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1974. “Persistence and Change in Political Systems.” American Political Science Review 68:14821504.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert, Jaggers, Keith, and Moore, Will. 1989. Polity II Handbook. Boulder: University of Colorado Press.Google Scholar
Hildebrand, David, Laing, James, and Rosenthal, Howard. 1977. Prediction Analysis for Cross Classifications. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Hosmer, David W. Jr., and Lemonshow, Stanley. 1989. Applied Logistic Regression Analysis. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul, and Russett, Bruce. 1993. “General Deterrence between Enduring Rivals: Testing Three Competing Models.” American Political Science Review 87:6173.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David. 1992. “Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War.” American Political Science Review 86:2437.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leng, Russell. 1993. “Reciprocating Influence Strategies and Success in Interstate Crisis Bargaining.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 37:341.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack S. 1988. “Domestic Politics and War.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18:345–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maoz, Zeev. 1989. “Joining the Club of Nations: Political Development and International Conflict, 1816–1976.” International Studies Quarterly 33:199231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maoz, Zeev, and Abdolali, Nasrin. 1989. “Regime Type and International Conflict, 1816–1976.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 33:335.Google Scholar
Maoz, Zeev, and Russett, Bruce. 1992. “Alliances, Wealth, Contiguity and Political Stability: Is the Lack of Conflict between Democracies a Statistical Artifact?International Interactions 17:245–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 1990. “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War.” International Security 15:556.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Campbell, Sally Howard. 1991. “Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35:187211.Google Scholar
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Schwebach, Valerie. 1992. “Take Two Democracies and Call Me in the Morning: A Prescription for Peace?International Interactions 17:305–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Most, Benjamin, and Starr, Harvey. 1989. Inquiry, Logic, and International Politics. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Oren, Ido. 1990. “The War Proneness of Alliances.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 34:208–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ray, James Lee. 1992. Global Politics. 5th ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.Google Scholar
Rummel, Rudolph J. 1979. Understanding Conflict and War. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Rummel, Rudolph J. 1983. “Libertarianism and International Violence.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 27:2771.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russett, Bruce. 1990. Controlling the Sword. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce. 1993. Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post–Cold War World. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce, and Antholis, William. 1992. “Do Democracies Rarely Fight Each Other? Evidence from the Peloponnesian War.” Journal of Peace Research 29:415434.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce, and Starr, Harvey. 1992. World Politics: The Menu for Choice. 4th ed. New York: Freeman.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart, and Stuckey, John. 1972. “Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965.” In Peace, War, and Numbers, ed. Russett, Bruce M.. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1968. “Alliance Aggregation and the Onset of War, 1816–1965.” In Quantitative International Politics, ed. Singer, J. David. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Siverson, Randolph. 1991. “The Escalation of Disputes and the Outbreak of War.” Presented at the Advances in the Scientific Study of International Conflict conference, Washington.Google Scholar
Small, Melvin, and Singer, J. David. 1976. “The War Proneness of Democratic Regimes.” Jerusalem Journal of International Relations 1:4164.Google Scholar
Summers, Robert, and Heston, Alan. 1988. “A New Set of International Comparisons of Real Product and Prices: Estimates for 130 Countries, 1950–1984.” Review of Income and Wealth 34:126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, Charles L., and Jodice, David A.. 1983. World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators. 3d ed. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Weede, Erich. 1983. “Extended Deterrence by Superpower Alliance.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 27:231–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weede, Erich. 1984. “Democracy and War Involvement.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 28:649–64.Google Scholar