Angela Merkel’s coalition is in trouble. That means Europe is, too

YOU MIGHT think that losing over ten percentage points off your vote was a calamity. But the drubbing meted out by the voters of Bavaria to Germany’s Christian Social Union (CSU) on October 14th, which saw it lose its majority after ruling Germany’s largest state single-handedly for all but five of the past 52 years, turns out to have been only the second-nastiest beating administered that day. The Social Democrats (SPD) were battered into fifth place, lost half their support and now seem to have entered terminal decline. That is a consequence, most analysts agree, of deciding in March to enter into a second “grand coalition” (GroKo, in its German nickname), with Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU). There is a chance that the collapse of Mrs Merkel’s government is only weeks away, with gloomy consequences for a continent grappling with Brexit, an incipient Italian-driven new euro crisis and an ever more cantankerous Russia.

The result in Bavaria was not all terrible news. The Greens, who have become an economically and politically sensible centre-left alternative to the SPD, with a much younger and more enthusiastic base of support, got a huge boost. The hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) did less well than many had feared, taking around 10% of the vote compared with the 16% or so they score in national opinion polls. But Bavaria’s election is further confirmation that all three of the GroKo parties are in deep trouble.

Nationally, Mrs Merkel’s CDU, like its Bavarian sister-party, the CSU, has lost a big chunk of its support to the AfD. This is a reaction to the chancellor’s decision in 2015 to admit more than 1m asylum-seekers into Germany. Though it is also because of her willingness to use frugal Germans’ cash to bail out prodigal southern members of the euro. For its part, the SPD is being deserted by its supporters in droves because once again it is propping up a chancellor they see as unacceptably conservative. The SPD now faces a bleak choice: to stay in a floundering, bickering alliance with a party its voters hate, or to leave—probably triggering an election in which it might do even worse than last time.

Nothing will happen before the end of the month. But the SPD might well jump if Hesse, a large state that votes on October 28th, delivers a similar verdict. That will lead to a new election, or possibly an attempt by Mrs Merkel to govern as a minority administration with the Greens. Little of note has been heard from her government on the national, European or global stage since it took office seven months ago and the drift is likely to continue. Even if the GroKo staggers on, the chancellor’s days at the top seem numbered. Senior members of her party openly discuss the likelihood that she will be obliged to stand down as party leader (though not, yet, as chancellor) at the CDU congress in December. The idea, presumably, is to allow her probable successor, the CDU’s general secretary, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, a chance to raise her profile before taking over as chancellor in good time for the next election. But it seems unlikely to make much difference to the CDU’s fortunes. Modern Germans have an understandable aversion to charismatic leaders, but Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer will test even them.

Feeble government in Germany could hardly come at a less propitious time. Britain seems headed for a no-deal Brexit at worst or many months of crisis at best. Italy’s unstable populist coalition has set itself on a collision course with the European Commission by proposing an unsustainable budget. Spain’s minority government commands just 24% of the Chamber of Deputies. Sweden has little prospect of forming a government any time soon. And even France is reeling from badly handled crises and a propensity for arrogance that have weakened President Emmanuel Macron at home and annoyed his partners abroad (see article). Weak leaders and parties with nothing to say to anxious voters have allowed support to drift to the extremes. It is not a cheerful picture, and it is likely to get worse.