However, Zambia’s economic problems owe more to the disastrous presidency of Edgar Lungu than to the pandemic. When he took office in 2015 after the death of his predecessor, public debt stood at 32% of GDP. After five years of profligacy and theft by the ruling elite, debt has ballooned to 120%. Economic growth has tumbled—to 1.4% in 2019 owing in no small part to his government’s habit of scaring off investors by seizing mines and detaining mining bosses. A central-bank governor who resisted Mr Lungu’s hints that he print more money was fired in August.
Mr Lungu may be economically incompetent, but he is politically shrewd. Before a presidential election in 2016, his regime arrested opposition leaders and shut down the main independent newspaper. He won by the slenderest of margins; eked out by last-minute ballot-stuffing, according to the opposition. When it asked the constitutional court for a recount, the judges (many appointed by Mr Lungu) set a date for a hearing two weeks later. In the hearing they threw out the case, citing a constitutional provision that election petitions must be heard within 14 days.
Mr Lungu is taking few chances ahead of the next presidential poll in August 2021, which he would probably lose if it were free and fair (see article). He has arrested and harassed Hakainde Hichilema, the main opposition leader, as well as journalists, musicians and other critics. The electoral commission is scrapping its voters’ roll and requiring all voters to register again in just 30 days. And if it turns out to be harder to register during the rainy season in the opposition’s rural strongholds than the ruling party’s urban ones, tough luck.
Many Zambians worry that their country is sliding into autocracy and economic ruin, like next-door Zimbabwe. To stop that slide, the region and the wider world need to start paying attention now, rather than just sending election observers a few weeks before the poll. South Africa, which has the most clout, needs to speak up. So does SADC, the regional bloc. And Zambia’s creditors should insist on cleaner and more democratic governance before agreeing to a bail-out. They wield a big stick. Zambia’s massive fiscal deficit of 12% of GDP means that it has to win their agreement if it is to keep borrowing in order to pay the salaries of soldiers, teachers and policemen.
