Israel’s villa in the jungle

SURPRISINGLY, PERHAPS, ISRAEL claims to be taking no sides in the Syrian conflict that rages in full sight of its outposts on the Golan Heights. If shot at it will shoot back; anyone smuggling advanced weapons to Hizbullah in Lebanon will be a fair target; and if Hizbullah comes too close to the Golan border, it will also be hit. For the most part, though, Israel’s view is best summed up by a quip in 1980 by Israel’s then prime minister, Menachem Begin, on the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war: “We wish both sides the greatest success.”

Israeli security folk see much good news in the Arab world’s convulsions. Israel’s deterrence is holding. No state directly threatens it. There is no Syrian army to speak of; Iran’s nuclear programme has probably been neutralised for a decade or more by its accord with America; and Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi is the most pro-Israeli Egyptian leader ever. Friendly Arab monarchies have survived and are moving towards a tacit alliance with Israel against Iran.

The Palestinians are weak and divided. The nationalist Fatah movement that rules the West Bank is at daggers drawn with Hamas, which holds Gaza. Both are co-operating (up to a point in the case of Hamas) to prevent attacks on Israel. At a time when the frontiers of the Middle East are being questioned as never before, the “1967 border”, which defines the Israeli-occupied territories, might become less inviolable (Israel says the world should now recognise its annexation of the Golan). Verily, says one securocrat, this is a land of miracles.

Yet there are still worries aplenty. Radical factions in the ungoverned spaces around Israel might turn their guns on it. Jordan, which implicitly protects Israel’s flank to the east, may yet be consumed by turmoil all around. And by saving the Syrian regime, Russia is strengthening Israel’s arch-foe, Iran.

Arabs, too, recognise that events are favouring Israel. Some otherwise sensible Arabs even suspect that the turbulence, including the emergence of Islamic State, are all somehow part of a Zionist conspiracy. That said, these days conversations about the state of the Arab world can go on for hours before the word “Palestine” is uttered.

Compared with his ever more right-wing coalition, the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, comes across as a moderate. He pays some lip service to the “two-state solution”, the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip (and part of Jerusalem) alongside Israel, but the “peace process” is at a dead end. Many in his government say this is no time for territorial concessions. Palestinians retort that the failure to reach a just settlement is sure to feed radicalism.

Never mind that the Arab world’s attention may be turned away from Palestine, says Husam Zomlot, a senior Palestinian official: “Israel has 99% of the day-to-day cards, but the Palestinians have the strategic cards.” The occupied land Palestinians claim is disappearing under Israeli roads and settlements in the West Bank. But the Palestinians are winning what some call the “battle of the womb”. The number of Arabs between the Mediterranean and the Jordan river (in Israel and the occupied territories) roughly equals that of Jews, at about 6.3m each, and may soon overtake it.

If Israel holds on to the occupied territories permanently, it cannot be both a full democracy and a Jewish state; the comparisons with apartheid are bound to intensify. An idea gaining strength among the pro-settler nationalist-religious right is to allow Gaza to become near-independent, even with its own sea port. That would hive off nearly 2m Palestinians. Some think Hamas might just be tempted to take this opportunity to claim an achievement after three damaging wars with Israel since 2008.

All this might explain why Israeli right-wingers are, unusually, complaining that Mr Sisi has been too tough on the Palestinians by cutting traffic and tunnels between Gaza and the restive Sinai peninsula. Just as some Israelis want to turn Gaza into Palestine, Egypt is dumping it back in Israel’s lap.