Variously vulnerable

JUST about every leader of the Arab League's 22 countries (all of them dictatorships, bar those of Lebanon, Iraq and the Palestinian territories, a trio of flawed exceptions) has been rattled by events in Egypt and Tunisia. But some are more vulnerable than others. The latest Arab guessing game is: “Who will be next?”

The most obvious candidate is the president of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has run the Yemeni republic in the north since 1978 and the union of north and south since 1990. He faced severe pressure even before Tunisia's turmoil, with tribal unrest in the north, separatism in the south and al-Qaeda in the east and elsewhere.

In the past week or so he has faced unprecedented street protests in Sana'a, his capital, organised by a loose alliance of internet-linked students, Islamists and others, known as the Joint Meeting Parties. On February 2nd, echoing Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, he said he would not run in the presidential election, due in 2013. But the protesters, announcing a “day of rage” on February 3rd, told him to go immediately.

Mr Saleh is a consummate manipulator of Yemen's complex tribal society and still has the loyalty of the armed forces. His early downfall cannot be presumed. And if he went, chaos could well ensue.

Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir, held responsible for “losing” South Sudan (see article) and for failing to raise living standards, is another candidate. In the past few days jobless youths have clashed with police on the streets of Khartoum, his capital; at least 70 were arrested and one killed. Riot police and plainclothes security men have ringed universities.

The protesters focused on rising living costs, partly caused by the government's withdrawal of subsidies for petrol and sugar—a ticklish issue across the Arab world. The leaders of Jordan, Algeria and Libya have all lessened taxes on imported food or lowered the prices of staples for fear of provoking unrest.

The leaders of the most repressive Arab states, such as Libya's Muammar Qaddafi and Syria's Bashar Assad, seem determined to clamp the lid firmly down; protesters, some of whom may be stirring, would get very short shrift. But if the lid blew off, the result would be bloody.

Morocco's king seems pretty safe. Least vulnerable of all are the boiling-rich monarchs of the Gulf, whose largesse generally keeps their small populations quiet. But Saudi Arabia, by far the beefiest and most populous of the Gulf states,is a separate case. With a burgeoning, better-educated middle class, a royal family facing an awkward succession soon and al-Qaeda still plotting against it, its monarchy may be safe for now—but perhaps not for ever.