A regional cockpit

Illustration by David Simonds

Editor's note: This is an abbreviated version of the story we published in the print edition of November 21st. For the background to the changes, see the article published in the issue of November 28th.

AS THE influence of the United States in Baghdad wanes, that of Iraq's three beefiest neighbours—Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey—has begun to wax. All three fear lest the vacuum left behind be filled by a regional rival. All three keenly seek to raise their influence—among other things by trying to bolster the electoral chances of those Iraqis with whom they have most in common. The Saudis and Iranians, in particular, are wary of the non-sectarian alliances emerging in the run-up to the election due on January 21st, preferring to back sectarian fronts. Simply put, the Iranians back the Shias and the Saudis back the Sunnis.

The Turks back the Turkomans, especially in the oil-rich but disputed area around Kirkuk. Though still wary of Kurdish power in northern Iraq, the Turks have recently been coming to terms with it. But they still fear that an independent Kurdistan evolving in Iraq may encourage Turkish Kurds to seek a similar goal in Turkey.

The Syrians, too, are loth to be left out, though they have less of a say. They may look to a new front that has emerged in the province of Nineveh, around the city of Mosul, which remains a stronghold of Sunni nationalists and Baathists.

The wrangle over Iraq's new election law illustrates the regional rivalry. The bill passed on November 8th after months of haggling is still subject to adjustment as one of Iraq's two vice-presidents, a Sunni, and the Kurds' regional president both seek to make niggling last-minute changes before they sign up, which they must do before the bill can take effect.

A main sticking point was Kirkuk. This dispute was settled, at least for the time being, by setting up a parliamentary committee that accepts the most recent voters' register as a basis for the electoral roll in January. The many Kurds who moved to Kirkuk after Saddam Hussein fell in 2003 should now be able to vote there. At least in the short run, the Kurds have got their way.

Though American officials twisted Iraqi arms to reach the deal, they were much less involved than before, partly out of choice, partly because Iraqis now listen to them less deferentially. Christopher Hill, the American ambassador, was often in parliament but generally stayed on the sidelines. Not so his Turkish counterpart, who embedded himself directly in negotiations and attended meetings of the key parliamentary committee. Indeed, he was rebuked for interfering by Iraq's foreign minister, a Kurd, who then pointedly failed to visit Turkish stands at Baghdad's recent international trade fair, the first such event since the American invasion.

The Iranians have been energetically boosting their sectarian allies, though it is never crystal clear which of Iraq's various Shia outfits they prefer. General Qassem Suleimani, commander of Iran's Quds Force, which sponsors and trains friendly guerrilla outfits in the region, is reported to have been in Baghdad. Ali Larijani, the speaker of Iran's parliament, has also been there, trying to persuade Shias to stick together in a united front rather than form non-sectarian alliances with Sunni Arabs or Kurds, most of whom are Sunni too. “The Iranian pressed us pretty hard,” said an Iraqi confidant of the prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki. So far, Iran's plea for Shia sectarian purity in Iraqi electoral alliances has fallen on deaf ears.

Similarly, the Saudis are said to be trying to persuade their Sunni co-religionists in Iraq to stick together too. Saudi rulers are still loth to accept that Iraqi Sunnis must either play second fiddle or compete alone; if they joined Shia-led alliances, they would be junior partners—yet with more clout than if they ran on their own.

Iran and Syria have long been accused of backing insurgents in Iraq. But regional competition is for the moment being fought out more eagerly in the political arena than on the battlefield. No single alliance is likely to win a majority of seats. So months of horse-trading are likely to ensue after the poll. Iranians, Turks and Saudis will try to mediate. But America no longer seems able to orchestrate a new deal.