What exactly is a pundit? According to the dictionary, it's "a person who makes comments or judgments, especially in an authoritative manner; critic or commentator."
There's certainly no shortage of that in the media these days.
Call the past decade the era of the talking head. Cable news networks trying to one-up each other in the ratings roll out programs hosted by people with pointed positions, most of them going one-on-one with guests who also bring strong views and--sometimes--expertise to the table.
In Pictures: America's Top Pundits
The inevitable shout-downs can make for riveting television even as they rub some people the wrong way. And there's no sign that the era of the pundit is going away anytime soon. Want to stand out from the media clutter? Bring a strong point of view, and at least pretend you're an expert. That's the case for not only television pundits, but for those opining through print, radio and the Web as well.
But which pundits have the most sway over America? Or, more specifically, which have the most influence by appealing to those most sought after by advertisers?
To find out, Forbes analyzed data compiled by market research group E-Poll on more than 60 well-known pundits who follow and critique the worlds of politics, current events, law, entertainment and sports. This is the same group that conducts the polling for the Forbes 08 Tracker presidential poll each month.
While the results show that plenty of cable talking heads like Bill O'Reilly, Lou Dobbs and Geraldo Rivera score highly, the most powerful pundit in America is veteran film critic Roger Ebert, who appeals to 70% of the demographic and whose long career makes him well known to well over half the population. A longtime writer for the Chicago Sun-Times, he's been offering up his cinematic views on television with partners Gene Siskel (from 1975-1999) and Richard Roeper (since 1999) for 32 years.
Ebert leads a list we compiled by scoring candidates on awareness and likability measurements among respondents within the demographic gold mine of advertisers--those between the ages of 25 and 54, with a college degree, making at least $50,000 annually.
Advertisers not only like those demographics, but they see pundit-heavy shows as a way to piggyback on the emotional connection that viewers have with the host.
"It's about the loyalty the audience has to the program," says Ryndee Carney, a spokeswoman for
Like any market research firm, E-Poll does not keep an official "pundit" category for the celebrities they track. So how to decide who to include and who not to? We opted to follow the dictionary, defining a public figure whose primary focus is bringing opinions and commentary to political, legal, sports, entertainment and other issues as a pundit.
That leaves off people like Howard Stern and Jon Stewart, who some might say fit a loose definition of the term but whose primary purpose is to entertain (the troubling trend of young adults getting their news from The Daily Show not withstanding). We also didn't include even-handed newsmen like Tim Russert, who tends to check his personal views at the door when interviewing politicians, or celebrities pushing particular causes, like Angelina Jolie.
We did include some entertainment veterans who now appear often on news and political programs as hosts that solicit their views on issues of the day, meaning they have successfully made the jump to punditry. That group includes Bill Maher, Al Franken and Rosie O'Donnell, all of whom make our top 10. To play fair, we also excluded all Forbes.com columnists and writers.
Popular pundits score with advertisers thanks not only to desirable demographics and an emotionally attached set of viewers, but because they draw largely fragmented audiences that produce consumers with similar tastes. The trick is having wide enough appeal to draw a large audience, while still being focused enough to weed out viewers that advertisers don't want to waste money trying to reach. Basically the sweet spot is somewhere between a general audience network show and a narrowly focused Web site.
"It's use of targeted media--you're reaching people with specific traits," says Jeff Chown, president of Dave Brown Talent, a unit of research group The Marketing Arm.
Indeed, the E-Poll scores show that despite the enormous and still growing momentum of new media, television still rules when it comes to crowning pundit kings and queens. Each one of our top 10, along with near misses like Jesse Jackson, Sean Hannity and Keith Olbermann, are brought to the public domain primarily through television (radio superstar Rush Limbaugh is the only exception in the close-but-no-cigar crowd).
Web pundits like Markos Moulitsas of the Daily Kos and Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo score high likability ratings with certain population segments, but their awareness numbers, which are more important than appeal, E-Poll notes, are barely on the radar screen. The same is largely true of elite newspaper columnists like Thomas Friedman, Maureen Dowd, Robert Novak, E.J. Dionne and Holman Jenkins.
Ebert, despite being limited to print reviewing over the past year as he battles cancer, is viewed by the public as intelligent, experienced and articulate, the three most common traits associated with the top 10 list. And his widespread appeal makes sense. Unlike political pundits who bring a liberal or conservative voice to the table, his strong opinions are generally confined to individual movies. Hence, he's not drawing cheers from half the population and jeers from the other half.
Not that political pundits come away too shabbily either. If your voice rises above the crowd in a smart and articulate way, advertisers will come calling. Just make sure you get on television.
In Pictures: America's Top Pundits
