By Michael Ozanian, Kurt Badenhausen and Christina Settimi
Relaxed ownership and debt rules, combined with the expectation for much more lucrative media deals, fueled an 11% increase in the value of the average NFL team over the past year, to $2.86 billion.
With an astounding $950 million in revenue—the most of any U.S. sports team—the Dallas Cowboys are still easily the king of the NFL hill, worth $5.5 billion. It is the 13th consecutive year the Cowboys are football’s most valuable team. The Cowboys rank first in the league in revenue from suites, club seats, sponsorships and non-NFL stadium events.
Rounding out the top five most valuable NFL teams are the New England Patriots ($4.1 billion), New York Giants ($3.9 billion), Los Angeles Rams ($3.8 billion) and San Francisco 49ers ($3.5 billion).
Can NFL teams command such high prices in the real world given the last NFL team sold, the Carolina Panthers, went for $2.3 billion a little over a year ago? Absolutely. In fact, in some cases our numbers might be conservative.
It’s the worst-kept secret in the NFL that the Chicago Bears have had an offer on the table from someone willing to pay $4 billion. Jim Irsay confirmed to Forbes he received a call recently from someone who offered $3.2 billion for his Indianapolis Colts. But our values for the Bears and Colts are $3.45 billion and $2.65 billion, respectively, because the teams are not for sale and offers that have not been vetted by the league don’t carry the same weight in our methodology as completed transactions. The offers also show, however, that NFL teams are prized trophies with potentially tremendous tax advantages.
Moreover, the league has made it easier to buy a team during the past year.
The NFL eliminated its cross-ownership restriction last October, meaning its owners can now own a different professional sports team in cities that have an NFL team. While this change impacts only a handful of potential buyers, it only takes one very rich person to bid up a sale to what would have been previously considered an unthinkable level. Recall Terry Pegula’s $1.4 billion purchase of the Buffalo Bills five years ago, $350 million more than the next highest offer. Remember Steve Ballmer’s $2 billion snag of the NBA’s Los Angeles Clippers in 2014? The former Microsoft CEO paid at least $400 million more than any other potential offer for the basketball team.
It has also become easier to finance team purchases. In early 2019, the NFL allowed for its owners, as individuals, to borrow up to $150 million using ownership of team above 30% (the minimum amount required for a controlling owner) as collateral. In addition, owners have told me the league is probably going to loosen “acquisition debt” on case-by-case basis if the league is comfortable with a buyer being able to pay back the debt within 10 years.
The increase in debt was warranted. The NFL's current per club leverage is around 1.5 times its television revenue (assuming around $238 million in television revenue on the maximum $350 million borrowing limit in 2019) and is materially lower than MLB's and the NBA's leverage.
Buyers can point to future media revenue when justifying their rich trophies. The NFL has deals with Comcast, CBS Corp., Walt Disney, Fox Corp. and AT&T set to expire by 2022 which currently average $7.2 billion a season. The outlook is bullish for the next round of rights. Television ratings rose modestly last season after two years of declines and the NFL dominated other programming, capturing three of the top four regular shows with viewers age 19 to 49. The NFL also generated 40 of the top 50 U.S. sports audiences in 2018, the same as the previous year.
Lee Berke, whose LHB Sports, Entertainment & Media advises on media deals, thinks the NFL’s next round of media rights could come close to doubling in value, on average. Berke points to a very competitive marketplace with everyone from the traditional networks like CBS, NBC, Fox and ESPN to streaming platforms like Apple TV, Hulu, Sony PlayStation View and DAZN entering the game. Amazon extended its streaming deal with the NFL last season when it paid 30% more and reportedly beat out Twitter Inc and Google’s YouTube. “There’s going to be a frenzy,” says Berke.
Although the NFL has an official casino partner with Caesars Entertainment and an official data provider to sportsbooks with Sportradar AG, it still has no official sports betting partner as the NBA, MLB and NHL do. But Berke believes legalized sports betting, currently in 12 states and gaining traction, will also add to the value of media deals by increasing the size of the audience, as well as increasing the time the audience is watching a game with the help of augmented broadcasts. With over-the-top streaming you can walk around and at the push of a button watch any game you are interested in with all the latest statistics and odds.
Seven teams—New York Giants, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills—rose at least 15% in value during the past year.
The skinny: The Giants are an iconic brand in the NFL’s biggest market, and there would be a lot of very rich people interested in buying the team if it came on the market. The Rams are moving into a new stadium next season that will be run by team owner Stan Kroenke (the Chargers will be a tenant) that will generate much more revenue, especially from sponsorships. Ditto the Raiders after they land in Las Vegas. The 49ers have a new stadium in one of the country’s wealthiest demographics. The Bears are also a very strong brand, and although Chicago is a smaller market than New York, the Bears don’t have to share their football-crazy market with another NFL team. The low-revenue Lions and Bills are going to be relatively big beneficiaries of the league’s next round of media deals, where revenue gets shared equally among the NFL’s 32 teams.
A few notes on our methodology. Revenues and operating income (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) are for the 2018 season and net of stadium debt service. Debt includes both team and stadium debt recourse to team owners. We employ the cash basis, rather than the accrual basis, of accounting.
Team values are enterprise value (equity plus net debt) and include the economics of the team’s stadium but not the value of its real estate. For teams building new stadiums, like the Rams and Raiders, values are based on estimates of revenue (net of stadium debt service) in their new stadiums.
32 | Buffalo Bills
• Value: $1.9 billion
• 1-Year Change: 19%
• Owners: Terry & Kim Pegula
• Operating Income*: $82 million
31 | Detroit Lions
• Value: $1.95 billion
• 1-Year Change: 15%
• Owner: Martha Firestone Ford
• Operating Income: $73 million
30 | Cincinnati Bengals
• Value: $2 billion
• 1-Year Change: 11%
• Owner: Michael Brown
• Operating Income: $58 million
29 | Tennessee Titans
• Value: $2.15 billion
• 1-Year Change: 5%
• Owner: Amy Adams Strunk
• Operating Income: $53 million
28 | Cleveland Browns
• Value: $2.175 billion
• 1-Year Change: 12%
• Owners: Dee & Jimmy Haslam
• Operating Income: $32 million
27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Value: $2.2 billion
• 1-Year Change: 10%
• Owner: Glazer Family
• Operating Income: $66 million
26 | Arizona Cardinals
• Value: $2.25 billion
• 1-Year Change: 5%
• Owner: William Bidwill
• Operating Income: $87 million
25 | New Orleans Saints
• Value: $2.275 billion
• 1-Year Change: 10%
• Owner: Gayle Benson
• Operating Income: $126 million
24 | Kansas City Chiefs
• Value: $2.3 billion
• 1-Year Change: 10%
• Owners: Lamar Hunt Family
• Operating Income: $83 million
23 | Jacksonville Jaguars
• Value: $2.325 billion
• 1-Year Change: 12%
• Owner: Shahid Khan
• Operating Income: $77 million
22 | Carolina Panthers
• Value: $2.4 billion
• 1-Year Change: 4%
• Owner: David Tepper
• Operating Income: $78 million
21 | Los Angeles Chargers
• Value: $2.5 billion
• 1-Year Change: 10%
• Owner: Dean A. Spanos
• Operating Income: $72 million
20 | Indianapolis Colts
• Value: $2.65 billion
• 1-Year Change: 11%
• Owner: James Irsay
• Operating Income: $104 million
19 | Minnesota Vikings
• Value: $2.7 billion
• 1-Year Change: 12%
• Owner: Zygmunt Wilf
• Operating Income: $65 million
18 | Baltimore Ravens
• Value: $2.75 billion
• 1-Year Change: 6%
• Owner: Stephen Bisciotti
• Operating Income: $131 million
17 | Atlanta Falcons
• Value: $2.755 billion
• 1-Year Change: 6%
• Owner: Arthur Blank
• Operating Income: $97 million
16 | Miami Dolphins
• Value: $2.76 billion
• 1-Year Change: 7%
• Owner: Stephen Ross
• Operating Income: $67 million
15 | Seattle Seahawks
• Value: $2.775 billion
• 1-Year Change: 8%
• Owners: Paul G. Allen Trust
• Operating Income: $106 million
14 | Pittsburgh Steelers
• Value: $2.8 billion
• 1-Year Change: 8%
• Owners: David Rooney Trust, Arthur Rooney II
• Operating Income: $102 million
13 | Green Bay Packers
• Value: $2.85 billion
• 1-Year Change: 9%
• Owners: Shareholder-owned
• Operating Income: $39 million
12 | Oakland Raiders
• Value: $2.9 billion
• 1-Year Change: 20%
• Owner: Mark Davis
• Operating Income: $28 million
11 | Denver Broncos
• Value: $3 billion
• 1-Year Change: 13%
• Owners: Pat Bowlen Trust
• Operating Income: $94 million
10 | Philadelphia Eagles
• Value: $3.05 billion
• 1-Year Change: 11%
• Owner: Jeffrey Lurie
• Operating Income: $150 million
9 | Houston Texans
• Value: $3.1 billion
• 1-Year Change: 11%
• Owner: Janice McNair
• Operating Income: $176 million
8 | New York Jets
• Value: $3.2 billion
• 1-Year Change: 12%
• Owners: Johnson Family
• Operating Income: $115 million
7 | Washington Redskins
• Value: $3.4 billion
• 1-Year Change: 10%
• Owner: Daniel Snyder
• Operating Income: $120 million
6 | Chicago Bears
• Value: $3.45 billion
• 1-Year Change: 19%
• Owners: McCaskey Family
• Operating Income: $62 million
5 | San Francisco 49ers
• Value: $3.5 billion
• 1-Year Change: 15%
• Owners: Denise DeBartolo York, John York
• Operating Income: $93 million
4 | Los Angeles Rams
• Value: $3.8 billion
• 1-Year Change: 19%
• Owners: Stanley Kroenke
• Operating Income: $30 million
3 | New York Giants
• Value: $3.9 billion
• 1-Year Change: 18%
• Owners: John Mara, Steven Tisch
• Operating Income: $142 million
2 | New England Patriots
• Value: $4.1 billion
• 1-Year Change: 8%
• Owners: Robert Kraft
• Operating Income: $240 million
1 | Dallas Cowboys
• Value: $5.5 billion
• 1-Year Change: 10%
• Owners: Jerry Jones
• Operating Income: $420 million
* Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
Related on Forbes: The NFL’s Highest-Paid Players 2019
It’s a game of inches—and dollars. Get the latest sports news and analysis, once a week in your inbox, from the Forbes SportsMoney Playbook newsletter. Sign up here.