Following the separatist votes in Eastern Ukraine, the world is riveted on this new and unanticipated global flashpoint as it stands on the precipice of civil war. Most Western commentary suggests that we are in the midst of a throwback to the power politics of the Cold War era, but this assessment misses the root cause. There’s a sense of disenfranchisement and alienation afflicting many Ukrainians in the east that is a more significant driver than any revisionist bipolar tensions. And this alienation is not a local issue, limited to former Soviet states – it’s a global phenomenon.
I came to know Ukraine following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Ukraine was on an optimistic upswing when President Clinton appointed me to the board of a U.S.-financed enterprise fund that encouraged private sector development in the country. Twice a year for ten years, I traveled the length and breadth of Ukraine, meeting entrepreneurs who were betting on the promise of a new economic beginning largely free of state constraints.
Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. and the UK had signed the Budapest memorandum guaranteeing the “territorial integrity and political independence” of Ukraine. As the world admired the exuberant democratic grit and determination of the newly independent Ukrainian people, their successful Orange Revolution brought the hopeful figure of Viktor Yushchenko to the presidency. That was in 2005.
What happened to the great promise of this country, so rich in talent, resources and history?
Putin’s hand
Without a doubt, Russian President Vladimir Putin has a stake in the separatist movement in eastern Ukraine. Despite his pragmatic if eyebrow-raising call to postpone the recent referendum on self-rule, much of the Western world assumes that Putin plans to reconstruct the old Soviet empire by inciting eastern Ukraine’s Russian population to secede. After losing the global economic competition that followed the end of the Cold War, Putin has returned to more familiar political turf. Using his muscle and guile, the former KGB operative seeks to win back through hard power politics what he lost on the soft power battlefield. So the argument goes.
Putin has cracked down on free expression at home, seeking to control not just mainstream news, but bloggers and social media as well. Meanwhile, a recent Pew research poll found that outside Crimea, the majority of Ukrainians – including ethnic Russians and those in the eastern provinces – do not support secession. It’s easy to see how the separatist movement could be construed merely as Putin’s power play. We’ve heard this song before – a reprise of a Soviet-era showdown between freedom and repression. History appears to be repeating itself. But is it?
Other factors at work
Separatist movements are gaining traction, and slowly coming into focus around the world. The name Ukraine means “borderland,” and mixed-population borderlands the world over are boiling over. It’s time we see that the recent events in Eastern Europe are part of a broader, global phenomenon. South Sudan gained its independence from Sudan in 2011 after a long civil war. The Scottish independence movement has stirred intense debate in the UK, and Parliament has approved a referendum to take place in September. On the other hand, the Spanish government has rejected plans for a referendum on Catalan independence. Canada just dodged a bullet in Quebec, where the prospect of a new independence vote was very real until separatists lost a recent key election. In Northern California and Northern Colorado, citizens and legislators have proposed splitting off to form their own states. These kinds of separatist movements could – in extraordinarily different ways – impact stability and alter borders.
What these movements have in common is a lost sense of security and identity. Uncertainty, economic insecurity, and a sense of unfairness have left growing groups of people – a socially and economically immobile majority – to stand by and watch while the system benefits a mobile minority reaping unfair opportunities and advantages. Some of the unfairness may be real and some may be perceived, but the perception is enough to foment intense anger and disaffection.
What does this mean for Ukraine….and the World?
In eastern Ukraine, the separatists have every right to feel disaffected. President Viktor Yanukovych, who fell from power in February, was from the east—one of their own. Corruption in Kiev, while a real problem, was not unique to Yanukovych’s administration. More importantly for many in the east, the deposed president was “their” leader. When people feel vulnerable, they seek security in a familiar sense of identity, often expressed through religion, ethnicity, language, culture or nationhood --and many Eastern Ukrainians look to Mother Russia for a sense of belonging in the face of uncertainty.
Sadly, Ukraine is in a state of pre-civil war. It is not ready for elections, but on Sunday, separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk forged ahead with self-rule referenda in spite of Kiev’s (and Putin’s) call to postpone them. This action reflects just how deeply dissatisfied they are with their current situation and how urgently they feel the need for change. Putin may find it easy to take advantage of their disaffection, but this is not a classic “putsch”—he’s tapping into the separatists’ deep sense of insecurity, alienation and diminished affinity with Kiev. Until Kiev addresses the root causes of their disaffection, stopping the separatist movement will become a game of Whack-A-Mole.
What is unfolding in Ukraine is of immense global relevance – both directly and as a manifestation of a deep shift that is underway around the world. The deep discontent and atomization we are witnessing is bubbling up in many spots around the world. It represents a dangerous opportunity for the rise of demagogues of many stripes – a seam in the social order. Any “solution” to this unrest will require us to move beyond simple labels and nationalities, and address root causes – disaffection brought on by economic stratification and the insecurity of global social turbulence. Only by understanding and honestly addressing these difficult challenges can Ukraine and the global community repair the social fabric and move forward…. in Ukraine and in our own backyards the world over.
