Ben-Hur isn’t just the summer’s biggest box office bomb. It’s also the year’s most predictable catastrophe. The Hollywood Reporter is reporting (sorry) that the MGM/Paramount offering, the last “big” movie of the summer, is going to lose around $120 million. The Timur Bekmambetov-directed adaptation of the 1880 novel (which has been made into a movie a few times previously) cost around $100m to produce, plus whatever marketing expenses came into play and has thus far earned just $54m worldwide with a likely final total of over/under $75m. The skewed irony is that MGM (which put up most of the budget) is going to be partially protected thanks to the $200m+ worldwide success of Me Before You.
That’s right, the $20 million romantic drama (which came courtesy of MGM, New Line Cinema, and Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc.) is going to blunt the impact of the failed action tentpole. That conventional “movie that Hollywood expects to make money” bombed hard, just as everyone paying attention expected it to, while the “counterprogramming” (a romantic drama directed, written, and produced by women) is a leggy worldwide hit that will lessen the impact of the big-budget disaster. Not only is that not how it’s supposed to work (small films bailing out tentpoles), but it’s a classic example of “what Hollywood thinks will make money versus what actually makes money.” By all means, learn absolutely nothing from this.
That “lesson” can apply to MGM’s 2016 slate thus far. They had three films with New Line this year. They were the Dakota Johnson/Rebel Wilson romantic comedy How to Be Single ($112 million worldwide on a $38m budget), the Ice Cube-led sequel Barbershop: The Next Cut ($54m on a $20m+ budget) and the Emilia Clarke/Sam Claflin romantic drama Me Before You (which just crossed the $200m mark worldwide). The only bomb, which was indeed a giant bomb, among MGM’s four 2016 offerings was the Jack Huston/Toby Kebbell-led big-budget action remake starring muscular (non-movie star) white dudes, a cameo from Morgan Freeman, and the women who suffered for their folly. By all means, learn nothing from this.
Obviously, the nature of MGM’s 2016 slate (which next includes the surefire sausage-fest smash The Magnificent Seven, a MGM/Sony remake with actual movie stars like Denzel Washington and Chris Pratt) is somewhat of a coincidence, but the results speak for themselves. No one was excited to see Ben-Hur, no one asked for a new version of Ben-Hur, especially one lacking any real star power and not having any reason to exist save to redo the chariot race with modern technology and potentially appeal to faith-based audiences. In a summer when even “safe bets” disappointed, this one was dead in the water from the word “go.” By all means, learn nothing from this.
Yet it will still be harder to convince studios to make films like Me Before You than it will be to convince studios to make movies like Ben-Hur. Even though Huston and Kebbell (through little fault of their own) piloted a giant box office turkey, they will still have an easier time getting starring and meaty supporting roles in mainstream projects than will Emilia Clarke. And even though Timur Bekmambetov hasn’t had a hit since Wanted back in 2008, he will still have an easier time lining up a big-budget follow-up project then will Me Before You director Thea Sharrock, who in this environment is considered lucky to have merely banked any follow-up gig.
You don’t need me to spend many paragraphs explaining the racial and gender inequities that exist in regards to what gets made in Hollywood and who gets to make those films. The industry knows it even if it seems mostly unwilling to do the simple thing that is offering female filmmakers the same level of presumed competence that male filmmakers get as a matter of course. We know films about women and for women make money, yet the presumption is still that female-driven cinema, or at least gender-neutral/diverse offerings, qualify as a risk. No matter how often The Intern out grosses Black Mass we’re still far more likely to get more like The Infiltrator than Bad Moms.
MGM is going to be “rescued” from Ben-Hur by a female-led romantic drama, a female-centric romantic comedy and a black-centric comedy. They made $368 million combined worldwide on a cumulative $78m budget. Ben-Hur cost around $100m all by itself and yet won’t make the combined budgets of those other three films worldwide. Oh, and let’s note that the Michael B. Jordon/Sylvester Stallone Rocky sequel Creed (MGM’s final 2015 release) earned $173m worldwide on a $35m budget. And yet it will likely be easier for Jack Huston to snag a mainstream lead/supporting roles (aside from “girlfriend” or “supportive wife” or “sidekick”) than it will be for Dakota Johnson, Michael B. Jordan, or Ice Cube.
The conventional wisdom about what Hollywood thinks will make money is running counter to what makes money in this strange new world. Ben-Hur bombed while Me Before You flourished. MGM’s conventional male-led tentpole was the summer’s biggest flop, a whiff everyone saw coming due to a lack of interest, a lack of star power, and a brand that elicited awareness but not excitement. Meanwhile, their low-budget female-led romantic drama earned back 10x its production budget in theatrical alone. At some point, we’re going to have to notice what does make money in Hollywood. Or, perhaps, more importantly, we’re going to have to notice what doesn’t make money. By all means, learn nothing from this.
