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Op-Ed Contributor

Foxes in Iran's Henhouse

AS the Bush administration looks at its options in dealing with Iran's nuclear threat, it should consider some little-noticed but significant recent changes in that country's leadership. The assumption in Washington has long been that Iran is ruled totally by a clerical clique headed by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Behind the facade of theocracy, however, the balance of power between religious elite and the military in the Islamic Republic has been changing.

The clerical regime's version of a praetorian guard, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has been growing in prominence in recent years, and may be poised to gain control of main levers of power. This has broad implications for Iranian politics, and for the future of American policy on Iran.

The Revolutionary Guards were formed in May 1979 by young rebels loyal to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini; their job was to combat the well-organized leftist militias that had challenged clerical control of the revolution. The guards evolved into a full-fledged military force during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980's, and were involved in many of the key campaigns. They also played a direct role in the organization and training of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Badr Brigade in Iraq.

While the guards had a lower profile in the 1990's, the victory of the reformist Mohammad Khatami in the presidential election of 1997 led the conservative clerical leadership to give them new support. In exchange for the guards cracking down on advocates of reform, the government gave them generous financing for troop training and new heavy-weapons systems -- including giving them oversight of missile and nuclear research programs -- as well as increases in salaries and benefits. The guard corps expanded its intelligence service, paramilitary ranks and even its air and naval capacity. It now has close to 150,000 soldiers, making up about a third of the nation's military.

Today the guards are commanded by a group of ideological conservatives, notably Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, who has even criticized the government for its willingness to negotiate with Europe over the country's nuclear activities. These commanders share strong personal bonds forged in the Iran-Iraq war, during which many were involved in ferocious campaigns that involved chemical attacks. They hold common views on Iran's regional dominant role, the nature of the country's external threats, and protecting the values of the revolution.

Since 1997 the guards' leadership has become much more prominent in foreign policy, strategic decision-making and even economic policy. Its commanders more or less control the state police as well as national radio and television; a former senior officer was recently named the country's vice president; they dominate the Ministries of Defense and Intelligence; and they are responsible for the personal security of the clerical leadership. Former members make up more than a third of the conservative Parliament that was elected earlier this year.

In addition, through its arrangements of contracts for public and private companies, the Revolutionary Guards have expanded their reach into the economy. More important, they have established a monopoly over the black market trade in embargoed goods -- consumer electronics, Western clothing, construction materials -- bringing in perhaps billions of dollars a year. The revenue has not only allowed the corps to exercise considerable domestic power through patronage, but has also removed budgetary constraints and government control over its spending on weapons and aid to foreign terrorist groups.

The full power of Revolutionary Guards was on display last year at the official opening of the Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran. After the ceremonies led by President Khatami, Revolutionary Guard forces stormed the airport and shut it down. While the reason for the show of force was a desire to get the contract for the management of the airport, more than anything it clearly established the extent of the group's power in Iran.

Now, guard commanders are showing readiness to assume large civilian roles, somewhat as Pakistani generals did before taking power from the country's civilian leaders in the 1990's: promising order, stability and prosperity. Some senior commanders are now sporting stylishly trimmed beards, flaunt newly acquired graduate degrees, and prefer to be called "doctor" rather than "general." At least one, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, is being mentioned as a contender for next May's presidential election.

Most important for America, the guards hold the key to nuclear dispute. They control both the Shahab missile program and vital parts of the nuclear technology effort. The guard corps' current commanders were greatly affected by Iraq's use of chemical weapons in the 1980's and Scud missile attacks against Iranian civilians. This experience drives their insistence that Iran needs a deterrent that will prevent any future attack on its soil. The greater presence of American troops in the Persian Gulf area only intensifies their concerns.

Yet the guard leaders oppose strengthening Iran's regular military forces. This is for two reasons: they know that their conventional forces would never be strong enough to combat a determined America, and they fear that a strengthened regular army might challenge the corps' current status and drive for power. Thus they see nuclear weapons as the sole means of ensuring their survival and projecting their power in the region.

What does all this mean for Washington? First, if America is going to change Iran's nuclear goals, it must influence decision making not only among the clerical leaders but also in Revolutionary Guards. This is why simply using a big stick -- possible economics sanctions and military threats -- won't work; that approach would only lead the guards to dig in their heels, and would strengthen their political position by allowing them to play to nationalist sentiments.

The situation calls for a more nuanced policy, one that will complement the fitful negotiations on nuclear policy led by our European allies. The objective should be first to slow down Revolutionary Guards' monopolization of power and, second, to strain their alliance with the religious leadership. A key will be gaining more international support for democracy in Iran, strengthening reformist forces and nongovernmental groups that continue to resist authoritarianism and can drive a wedge between the guards and the mullahs.

On the other hand, we must get the European countries with extensive commercial ties with Iran to use sticks as well as carrots. They must put pressure on the Revolutionary Guards' considerable business interests in a way that will enlarge fissures between the guards, the clerical elite and the various social groups that are tied to them through patronage.

Iran may be America's most intractable problem of the post-cold-war era. But in foreign policy it is always easier to deal with a divided opponent than a united one. America and the West must not only recognize the growing political divisions in Iran, but also exploit them.

Op-Ed Contributor Vali Nasr is a professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. Ali Gheissari is a professor of history at the University of San Diego.

A version of this article appears in print on  , Section A, Page 27 of the National edition with the headline: Foxes in Iran's Henhouse. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

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