Implausible projections overestimate near-term Bitcoin CO2 emissions
- Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Radboud Univ., Nijmegen (Netherlands)
- Rocky Mountain Institute, Basalt, CO (United States)
- Ericsson Research, Stockholm (Sweden)
Bitcoin mining is becoming an increasingly energy-intensive process whose future implications for energy use and CO2 emissions remain poorly understood. This is in part because—like many IT systems—its computational efficiencies and service demands have been evolving rapidly. Therefore, scenario analyses that explore these implications can fill pressing knowledge gaps, but they must be approached with care. History has shown that poorly constructed scenarios of future IT energy use—often due to overly-simplistic extrapolations of early rapid growth trends—can do more harm than good by spreading misinformation and driving ill-informed decisions. Indeed, the utility of an energy demand scenario is directly proportional to its credibility, which is typically demonstrated through careful attention to technology characteristics and evolution, analytical rigor and transparency, and designing scenarios that align with plausible future outcomes.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- OSTI ID:
- 1561950
- Report Number(s):
- LBNL-2001235; ark:/13030/qt8vf573nb
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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