UK Edition
The Hartlepool by-election will be the first time that Boris Johnson’s Conservatives will come up against a Labour Party led by Keir Starmer at the ballot box in a parliamentary election. The contest, which takes place today, May 6, will also be the first by-election of the 2019 parliament.
The by-election was called after Hartlepool’s sitting MP, Labour’s Mike Hill, resigned following allegations of sexual harassment and victimisation. MR Hill held the seat for Labour in 2019, yet the Tories managed to cut Labour's lead to fewer than 4,000 votes.
Hartlepool’s status as a ‘Red Wall’ seat, which has been held by Labour at every election since 1964 and voted heavily for Brexit in the 2016 EU Referendum, means the by-election has also been framed as the first test of Sir Keir’s ability to repair the damage inflicted on the party in the 2019 general election.
However, the Conservatives are hoping to go one step further and take a seat that last returned a Tory MP in 1959 when the constituency was known as The Hartlepools and Harold Macmillan was the occupant of 10 Downing Street.
Why it matters to Labour leader Keir Starmer?
Just over a year on from being elected as Labour leader, the Hartlepool by-election presents Sir Keir with the first real test of his Red Wall credentials.
Sir Keir inherited a party still reeling from its worst electoral result in 84 years after Labour lost 60 seats in the 2019 general election. However, his attempts to steady the ship and rebuild a broken party have flatlined in recent months, with the polls showing consistent Tory leads.
Critics of Sir Keir on the Left claim he is yet to express a clear vision for the party or provide enough vocal opposition to the Government. While others argue that Sir Keir, a former human rights lawyer who advocated a second EU referendum and represents a North London constituency, is not the right man to win back Red Wall seats in the North and Midlands that leaned heavily towards Brexit.
Victory in Hartlepool may help to silence carping critics of his leadership for now at least, while defeat will undoubtedly lead to renewed suggestions that Sir Keir is leading Labour in the wrong direction.
Asked if he accepts that this week's election results will reflect on his leadership, Sir Keir told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Yes, and I take full responsibility for the results, just as I take full responsibility for everything that happens in the Labour Party under my leadership.
"I hope we won't lose Hartlepool, we're fighting for every vote there and I know that every vote has to be earned and that's why I've been in Hartlepool three times in the campaign and we've got teams on the ground.
"My job as Labour leader was to rebuild the Labour Party out of that devastating loss in 2019 and put us in a position to win the next general election."
However, speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme on May 5, shadow work and pensions secretary Jonathan Reynolds said that Labour could outperform election polls despite indications that it could lose places like Hartlepool.
"If you look at where there is a Conservative poll lead in some polls it's heavily down to turnout.
"Quite rightly, we know from previous elections polls went wrong because Conservative voters are frankly more likely statistically to turn out.
"We can say to people if you want strong local candidates that will make a difference in your area focused on public services and your welfare, go out and vote Labour.
"If people do that we might outperform many of those polls."
Why it matters to Boris Johnson and the Tories?
It remains to be seen whether the Red Wall seats the Tories gained in 2019 were a one-off or symptomatic of a wider electoral shift towards the Conservatives among traditional working-class Labour voters.
Holding the seats gained in 2019 and turning more of the North and Midlands blue will be a vital part of Mr Johnson’s political project over the upcoming years.
The Tories will hope that their position on culture war issues will win them further support in these areas as Labour struggles to appease both its traditional voters and those from a younger, more progressive demographic.
A Tory victory in Hartlepool will provide further evidence that a seismic shift in the electoral landscape has occurred, and that Red Wall voters were not simply holding their nose when voting Conservative in 2019 due to their distaste for Jeremy Corbyn’s particular brand of Labour.
Mr Johnson said the Hartlepool vote would be a "very tough fight" in a seat that "hasn't been a Conservative since its inception – 46 years ago, or whatever it was".
Amanda Milling, the chairman of the Conservatives, said it was "extraordinary" that the party could even contemplate winning in the town but added: "It is a tough fight, given the history of the seat.
"I think even the fact that we're having this conversation is pretty extraordinary, if you think about it. Ten to 20 years ago, if you heard us talking you'd be somewhat surprised."
What it says about voters' concerns
For the last few weeks the front pages of newspapers have been dominated by allegations of Tory sleaze, with unanswered questions over the funding of the Prime Minister’s flat and concern about the ease with which lobbyists can access Mr Johnson.
However, the Conservatives continue to enjoy a healthy lead in the polls and it remains to be seen whether the negative headlines have had real ‘cut through’ beyond the Westminster bubble.
The Conservatives will hope that the success of the vaccine rollout and the lockdown roadmap going to plan will ultimately prove to be of greater importance to the average voter than any intrigue about Mr Johnson’s living arrangements.
The candidates for the seat
Paul Williams, Labour
Labour’s candidate Paul Williams is a GP who was also previously elected MP for Stockton South in 2017 before being unseated just over two years later in December 2019.
His consistent opposition to Brexit, which involved breaking the Labour whip six times to back a second referendum, will be something the Tories will try to capitalise on in a seat which recorded a vote for Brexit of nearly 70 per cent.
Jill Mortimer, Conservative
The Tories are hoping that Jill Mortimer, a farmer and local councillor from North Yorkshire, is the person to knock another hole in the Red Wall. However, her selection was criticised by some within the party due to her lack of links to the town.
The importance the Conservatives are placing on securing victory can be seen in the Prime Minister’s recent visit to the port town in support of Mortimer.
John Prescott, Reform UK
Reform UK is the rebranded version of the Brexit Party, whose candidate Richard Tice won just over a quarter of Hartlepool’s vote in 2019. With the UK now out of the EU, it is unlikely that their new candidate, businessman John Prescott (no relation to the former Labour deputy prime minister), will come close to the 10,603 votes won byMr Tice, but who those votes are redistributed to could well determine the outcome of the by-election.
Other candidates standing:
David Bettney, Social Democratic Party
The Incredible Flying Brick, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Hilton Dawson, The North East Party
Gemma Evans, Women's Equality Party
Rachel Sara Featherstone, The Green Party
Adam Gaines, Independent
Andrew Michael Hagon, Liberal Democrat
Steve Jack, Freedom Alliance, No Lockdowns, No Curfews
Chris Killick Sam Lee, Independent
Claire Martin, Heritage Party
Thelma Doris Walker, Independent
W. Ralph Ward-Jackson, Independent
Listen to chief political correspondent Christopher Hope in conversation with Conservative Party co-chair Amanda Milling ahead of the Hartlepool by-election on The Telegraph's Chopper's Politics podcast, using the audio player above.