El Salvador’s Bukele: From ‘World’s Coolest Dictator’ to ‘Philosopher King’

El Salvador’s Bukele: From ‘World’s Coolest Dictator’ to ‘Philosopher King’

Thursday, February 8, 2024

By: Mark Feierstein;  Keith Mines;  Mary Speck, Ph.D.;  Ricardo Zúniga

El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, celebrated a landslide electoral victory on Feb. 4, far outstripping his nearest competitor. “The opposition was pulverized,” Bukele told jubilant crowds outside the National Palace on election night. In reply to critics who warn that El Salvador is moving toward authoritarianism, he proclaimed, “we are not substituting democracy because El Salvador has never had democracy.” The leader who once called himself the “world’s coolest dictator” now boasts of being his country’s “philosopher king.”

Type: AnalysisQuestion and Answer

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

How to Reduce Nuclear Risks Between the United States and North Korea

How to Reduce Nuclear Risks Between the United States and North Korea

Monday, February 5, 2024

By: Ankit Panda

Since the collapse of the unprecedented leader-level diplomatic process between the United States and North Korea in 2019, relations between the two sides have been at a standstill. In 2021, as the Biden administration entered office, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un set into motion a wide-ranging plan for the modernization of his nuclear forces. This modernization has helped render his nuclear deterrent more credible while accentuating the risks of nuclear conflict on the Korean Peninsula. It has further cemented North Korea’s lack of intent to relinquish its nuclear weapons, which it views as the essential cornerstone of its national defense strategy.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Liberia Shows a Path Toward Democracy in West Africa

Liberia Shows a Path Toward Democracy in West Africa

Thursday, February 1, 2024

By: Matthew Reitman;  Katie Todd

Liberia’s presidential inauguration last week, a peaceful transfer of power between opposed political parties, strengthens its postwar democracy — an achievement that we should highlight as an instructive counterpoint to West Africa’s military coups and other erosions of democracy. While 5 million Liberians confront crises including poverty, corruption and poor infrastructure, their progress in stabilizing from decades of war offers lessons for us all. Liberians’ vital strengths in this peaceful transfer include strong political will, reflected in record voter turnout, and a potent civic history of nonviolent movements for change, buttressed by U.S. support in countering corruption.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

Three Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Generals Face an Existential Crisis

Three Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Generals Face an Existential Crisis

Thursday, February 1, 2024

By: Priscilla A. Clapp;  Billy Ford;  Nang Raw;  Jason Tower;  Andrew Wells-Dang, Ph.D.

Three years after Myanmar’s military overthrew the country’s democratically elected government, the ruling generals — having suffered humiliating battlefield defeats — face an existential crisis. Victories by the diverse ranks of Myanmar’s resistance have invigorated their morale and they are tightening battlefield coordination despite slow progress toward political consensus. The military, meanwhile, is short of manpower and controls a shrinking percentage of the nation.

Type: AnalysisQuestion and Answer

Global Policy

Russia’s War on Moldova Will Be Political in 2024. And Then?

Russia’s War on Moldova Will Be Political in 2024. And Then?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

By: James Rupert

As Ukraine defends its independence and democracy against Russia’s invasion, tiny Moldova confronts a parallel Russian “hybrid war” — and the past 12 weeks have sharpened this battle for Moldova in 2024. Moldova advanced its accession to the European Union and joined EU sanctions against Russians driving the war on Ukraine. Moldova’s government scheduled a referendum to ratify the country’s future as a European democracy after more than 150 years as a militarized frontier of Russian empires. Russia’s malign uses of information, election interference and capacity to trigger a real war — a second front against Europe — heighten the urgency to strengthen Moldova’s resilience and energize its pro-democracy constituency in 2024.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy

The United States Weighs Its Options in the Face of Iran’s Provocations

The United States Weighs Its Options in the Face of Iran’s Provocations

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

By: Sarhang Hamasaeed;  Mona Yacoubian

Three U.S. troops were killed and at least 34 injured in a drone strike on a U.S. base in northeast Jordan on January 28. The attack comes against a backdrop of rising regional tensions since the outbreak of conflict in Gaza following the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel.

Type: AnalysisQuestion and Answer

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal PolicyViolent Extremism

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

By: Alex Vines;  Henry Tugendhat;  Armida van Rij

For over three decades, every Chinese foreign minister’s first overseas trip of the year has been to Africa. This year continued the tradition with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, visiting Egypt, Tunisia, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire. Notably, every one of these countries is coastal. And yet, at a time of continued speculation over China’s next military installation in Africa, none of these countries has featured prominently as potential locations in previous analyses. We might, therefore, reasonably ask what China’s current considerations are around basing in Africa. Faced with an increasingly multipolar and assertive Africa at a time of domestic economic challenge, however, China’s long-term strategy remains unclear.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Wanted: A Reset of Haiti Policy

Wanted: A Reset of Haiti Policy

Thursday, January 25, 2024

By: Georges Fauriol

Haiti’s governance vacuum triggered by President Jovenel Moïse’s assassination in July 2021 shows few encouraging signs. Violence, notably around Port-au-Prince, has not only grown in lethality, but politically has become the central issue shaping domestic and international discussions. The imminent expiration of acting Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s term in office on February 7 means Haiti’s political crisis is on course to become more intransigent.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy