Iran is the biggest threat to peace in the Middle East, said retired Gen. Jim Mattis, the legendary Marine who’s being courted as a possible presidential candidate.
Mattis, a former U.S. Central Commander, called Iran “foremost” among the many challenges in the region in remarks at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event in Washington. The event was highly anticipated, since a group of GOP donors is attempting to draft him for a presidential run.
“The Iranian regime in my mind is the single most enduring threat to stability and peace in the Middle East. Despite repeated mentions of the Islamic State and al Qaeda by others… Nothing I believe is as serious in the long term in enduring ramifications in terms of stability, and prosperity and some hope for a better future for the young people out there than Iran.”
In his 30 minutes of prepared remarks, Mattis made the case that Iran’s actions have not changed since the Iranian revolution of the 1970s. “It remains the single most belligerent actor in the Middle East… Their consistent behavior since 1979 through today shows no sign of changing.”
Mattis says Iran is taking advantage of the Islamic State to further its own aims, “I consider ISIS nothing more than an excuse for Iran to continue its mischief. Iran is not an enemy of ISIS. They have a lot to gain from the turmoil in the region that ISIS creates. I would just point out one question for you to look into. What is the one country in the Middle East that has not been attacked by ISIS? One. And it’s Iran. That is just more than happenstance, I’m sure.”
He cited five threats that the country poses: nuclear, maritime, ballistic missile, cyber and through its Quds Force. The U.S., meanwhile, is in what he called “a strategy-free mode.”
When it came to politics, Mattis said he hadn’t “given any thought to” a presidential run when asked by a reporter. When pressed about how seriously the rumors should be taken, he simply said, “I think people like you know that better than I do.”
But he didn’t stay out of politics completely. Mattis was critical of the nuclear agreement with Iran negotiated by the Obama administration along with five other world powers, but conceded that with the U.S. public having little appetite to go to war with Iran, the deal may be “the best we could come up with.”
“We are just going to have to recognize that we have an imperfect arms control agreement. Second, that what we achieved is a nuclear pause, not a nuclear halt, and we’re going to have to plan for the worst.”
Mattis said he’s read the complete text of the 156-page agreement twice, and concludes that it provides for “imperfect but intrusive” inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and said it is “very clearly drawn up with the expectation that Iran will cheat.”
The former top military commander said that while the inspections may not prevent Iran from continuing to develop a nuclear capability, “If nothing else at least we will have better targeting data if it comes to a fight in the future.”
Mattis argues there is a window to take more effective action to counter Iran’s malicious activities, such as improving missile defenses, better monitoring of Iran’s cyber activity, and strengthening the Persian Gulf-based U.S. 5th fleet to counter Iranian moves there.
“We do have some time to get our act together. I think Iran has a lot to gain for the next 18 months to two years of playing by the rules and not taking too many chances, if any significant chances, as they try to get the economic benefits,” Mattis said.
But Mattis didn’t go as far as some critics, who advocate tearing up the nuclear deal, and instituting new unilateral sanctions to force Iran to accept a more iron-clad agreement.
“There’s no going back,” Mattis said. “I don’t think that we can take advantage of some new president’s — Republican or Democrat — and say we’re not going to live up to our word on this agreement. I believe we would be alone if we did, and unilateral economic sanctions from us would not have near the impact of an allied approach.”
Bottom line, Mattis said, is it’s time to start drawing up credible war plans for the eventuality of war with Iran to thwart its nuclear ambitions.
“I think we’re going to have to hold at risk the nuclear program in the future. In other words, make plans now of what we’d do if in fact they restarted.”
