If President-elect Joe Biden’s razor-thin lead in Georgia holds, 2020 will become the first year since 1992 that a Democrat wins the state. Georgia’s reemergence as a battleground marks a major shift in its political landscape that would have seemed almost inconceivable even four years ago.
Biden leads President Trump by about 10,000 votes out of 5 million cast, and Georgia state officials said Friday that such a narrow margin makes a recount all but certain.
Yet even if a recount does reverse the result, the state has returned to the ranks of the competitive, its leftward shift propelled by a coalition of voters very unlike the one that helped Bill Clinton win the state in 1992.
Georgia’s Democratic coalition has dramatically shifted
since ’92
When Bill Clinton won Georgia 28 years ago, he racked up small margins in rural counties throughout the state. This year, by contrast, Joe Biden has depended on huge victories in Atlanta and its suburbs even as he trails in most rural counties.
Difference in votes between first
and second place in each county:
10K
50K
100K
250K
2020
2016
J. Biden
D. Trump
H. Clinton
D. Trump
50.4%
45.3%
49.4%
49.3%
Atlanta
Columbus
Savannah
2012
2008
B. Obama
M. Romney
B. Obama
J. McCain
53.3%
52.2%
45.5%
45.5%
2004
2000
J. Kerry
G.W. Bush
A. Gore
G.W. Bush
54.7%
43.0%
41.4%
58.0%
1995
1992
B. Clinton
B. Dole
B. Clinton
G.W. Bush
47.0%
42.9%
45.8%
43.5%
Note: 2020 vote data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: Edison Research,
Georgia Secretary of State.
Georgia’s Democratic coalition has
dramatically shifted since 1992
When Bill Clinton won Georgia 28 years ago, he racked up small margins in rural counties throughout the state. This year, by contrast, Joe Biden has depended on huge victories in Atlanta and its suburbs even as he trails in most rural counties.
Difference in votes between first
and second place in each county:
10K
50K
100K
250K
2020
2016
J. Biden
D. Trump
H. Clinton
D. Trump
50.4%
45.3%
49.4%
49.3%
Atlanta
Columbus
Savannah
2012
2008
B. Obama
M. Romney
B. Obama
J. McCain
53.3%
52.2%
45.5%
45.5%
2004
2000
J. Kerry
G.W. Bush
A. Gore
G.W. Bush
54.7%
43.0%
41.4%
58.0%
1995
1992
B. Clinton
B. Dole
B. Clinton
G.W. Bush
47.0%
42.9%
45.8%
43.5%
Note: 2020 vote data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: Edison Research, Georgia Secretary of State.
Georgia’s Democratic coalition has
dramatically shifted since 1992
When Bill Clinton won Georgia 28 years ago, he racked up small margins in rural counties throughout the state. This year, by contrast, Joe Biden has depended on huge victories in Atlanta and its suburbs even as he trails in most rural counties.
Difference in votes between first and second place in each county:
10K
50K
100K
250K
2020
2016
2012
2008
J. Biden
D. Trump
H. Clinton
D. Trump
B. Obama
M. Romney
B. Obama
J. McCain
50.4%
53.3%
52.2%
45.3%
45.5%
45.5%
49.4%
49.3%
Atlanta
Columbus
Savannah
Biden secured huge leads in Atlanta’s Fulton County and its suburbs.
Trump won in most counties.
2004
2000
1995
1992
J. Kerry
G.W. Bush
A. Gore
G.W. Bush
B. Clinton
B. Dole
B. Clinton
G.W. Bush
54.7%
47.0%
42.9%
43.0%
45.8%
43.5%
41.4%
58.0%
Voters in rural areas preferred Bill Clinton
in 1992, helping him win the state.
In 2004, George W. Bush won Georgia by 17 points, the largest margin since 1988.
Note: 2020 vote data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: Edison Research, Georgia Secretary of State.
Georgia’s Democratic coalition has shifted since 1992
When Bill Clinton won Georgia 28 years ago, he racked up small margins in rural counties throughout the state. This year, by contrast, Joe Biden has depended on huge victories in Atlanta and its suburbs
even as he trails in most rural counties.
Difference in votes between first and second place in each county:
10K
50K
100K
250K
2020
2016
2012
2008
J. Biden
D. Trump
H. Clinton
D. Trump
B. Obama
M. Romney
B. Obama
J. McCain
50.4%
53.3%
52.2%
45.3%
45.5%
45.5%
49.4%
49.3%
Atlanta
Columbus
Savannah
Biden secured huge leads in Atlanta’s Fulton County and its suburbs.
Trump won in most counties.
2004
2000
1995
1992
J. Kerry
G.W. Bush
A. Gore
G.W. Bush
B. Clinton
B. Dole
B. Clinton
G.W. Bush
54.7%
47.0%
42.9%
43.0%
45.8%
43.5%
41.4%
58.0%
In 2004, George W. Bush won Georgia by 17 points, the largest margin since 1988.
Voters in rural areas preferred Bill Clinton
in 1992, helping him
win the state.
Note: 2020 vote data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: Edison Research, Georgia Secretary of State.
Georgia’s Democratic coalition has dramatically shifted since 1992
When Bill Clinton won Georgia 28 years ago, he racked up small margins in rural counties throughout the state. This year, by contrast, Joe Biden has depended on huge victories
in Atlanta and its suburbs even as he trails in most rural counties.
Difference in votes between first and second place in each county:
10K
50K
100K
250K
2020
2016
2012
2008
J. Biden
49.4%
D. Trump
49.3%
H. Clinton
45.3%
D. Trump
50.4%
B. Obama
45.5%
M. Romney
53.3%
B. Obama
47.0%
J. McCain
52.2%
Atlanta
Columbus
Savannah
Biden secured huge leads in Atlanta’s Fulton County and its suburbs.
Trump won in most counties.
2004
2000
1996
1992
J. Kerry
41.4%
G.W. Bush
58.0%
A. Gore
43.0%
G.W. Bush
54.7%
B. Clinton
45.8%
B. Dole
47.0%
B. Clinton
43.5%
G.W. Bush
42.9%
In 2004, George W. Bush won Georgia by 17 points, the largest margin since 1988.
Voters in rural areas preferred Bill Clinton in 1992, helping him win the state.
Note: 2020 vote data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: Edison Research, Georgia Secretary of State.
In 1992, Clinton was a Southern governor who carried a handful of what have now become solidly Republican states. He may have also benefited from billionaire Ross Perot’s independent candidacy, which garnered 13 percent of the vote in Georgia that year.
Twenty-eight years later, the polarization in Georgia mirrors that in the rest of the nation. Majority-White rural counties overwhelmingly preferred Trump, while Biden benefited from an enormous margin and historic turnout in Atlanta and the surrounding suburbs, where a substantial share of voters are Black. Nearly 9 in 10 Black voters in Georgia supported Biden over Trump, according to preliminary exit polls.
[Democrats are hailing Stacey Abrams for Biden’s lead in Georgia. Here’s how she pulled it off.]
To be sure, rural voters in the Piedmont region and southern Georgia did not uniformly scorn Biden, nor were Trump supporters scarce around Atlanta. In Fulton County, which contains most of Atlanta and the city’s suburbs to the north and south, Trump tallied about 136,000 votes, building on the 118,000 he won in 2016.
It was not enough. Biden garnered more than 377,000 votes in Fulton County, far more than Hillary Clinton’s 297,000 votes in 2016.
To the east, in DeKalb County, and in a half dozen other suburban counties surrounding Atlanta, it was the same story: Trump built on last election’s vote total but failed to keep pace with Biden’s gains.
Biden racked up votes in Atlanta and its suburbs
Net number of votes gained by the Democrat or Republican in presidential elections,
grouped by county.
Atlanta
Atlanta
suburbs
Georgia
Everywhere
else
Atlanta
More votes
for Democrat
250k
0
1996
1992
2016
2012
2008
2000
2004
2020
More votes
for Republican
250k
Atlanta suburbs
Biden has netted 207k votes from Atlanta suburbs — 193k more than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
250k
1996
1992
2012
2008
2000
2004
0
2016
2020
250k
Everywhere else
Bill Clinton’s 1992 coalition was a mix of Atlanta and counties outside the Atlanta metro area.
250k
1996
2016
2012
2008
2000
2004
2020
0
1992
250k
Note: Data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: 2020 election results from Edison Research. Historical election results from Georgia Secretary of State.
Biden racked up votes in Atlanta and its suburbs
Atlanta
Atlanta
suburbs
Net number of votes gained by the Democrat or Republican in presidential elections,
grouped by county.
Georgia
Everywhere
else
Atlanta
More votes
for Democrat
250k
0
1996
1992
2016
2012
2008
2000
2004
2020
More votes
for Republican
250k
Biden has netted 207k votes from Atlanta suburbs — 193k more than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
Atlanta suburbs
250k
1996
1992
2012
2008
2000
2004
0
2016
2020
250k
Everywhere else
250k
1996
2016
2012
2008
2000
2004
2020
0
1992
250k
Bill Clinton’s 1992 coalition was a mix of Atlanta and counties outside the Atlanta metro area.
Note: Data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: 2020 election results from Edison Research.
Historical election results from Georgia Secretary of State.
Biden racked up votes
in Atlanta and its suburbs
Atlanta
Atlanta
suburbs
Net number of votes gained by the
Democrat or Republican in presidential elections, grouped by county.
Georgia
Everywhere
else
Atlanta
Atlanta suburbs
Everywhere else
More votes
for Dem.
More votes
for Rep.
More votes
for Dem.
More votes
for Rep.
More votes
for Dem.
More votes
for Rep.
2020
2020
2020
Biden has netted 207k votes from Atlanta suburbs — 193k more than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
2016
2016
2016
2012
2012
2012
2008
2008
2008
2004
2004
2004
2000
2000
2000
1996
1996
1996
1992
1992
1992
250k
0
250k
0
250k
0
250k
250k
250k
Bill Clinton’s 1992 coalition was a mix of Atlanta and counties outside the Atlanta metro area.
Note: Data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: 2020 election results from Edison Research. Historical election results
from Georgia Secretary of State.
Biden racked up votes
in Atlanta and its suburbs
Atlanta
Atlanta
suburbs
Net number of votes gained by the
Democrat or Republican in presidential elections, grouped by county.
Georgia
Everywhere
else
Atlanta
Atlanta suburbs
Everywhere else
More votes
for Dem.
More votes
for Rep.
More votes
for Dem.
More votes
for Rep.
More votes
for Dem.
More votes
for Rep.
2020
2020
2020
Biden has netted 207k votes from Atlanta suburbs — 193k more than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
2016
2016
2016
2012
2012
2012
2008
2008
2008
2004
2004
2004
2000
2000
2000
1996
1996
1996
1992
1992
1992
250k
0
250k
250k
0
250k
250k
0
250k
Bill Clinton’s 1992 coalition was a mix of Atlanta and counties outside the Atlanta metro area.
Note: Data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: 2020 election results from Edison Research. Historical election results from Georgia Secretary of State.
This year’s massive vote margins in and around Atlanta reflect a statewide surge in voter registration, spurred in part by a 2016 administrative change that made registering to vote the default option on the state’s driver’s registration form.
“New voters will on balance be lower-income, and they’re probably more likely to identify with the Democratic Party,” Dan Franklin, who was an associate professor of political science at Georgia State University, told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution last year about the likely political impact of the change.
Many inside and outside the state also credit former Democratic state minority leader and gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, whose voting rights group Fair Fight worked to fight voter suppression and mobilize the state’s newly registered voters.
In 2016, 22 percent of Georgia’s eligible voters were not registered. This year, that figure stood at 2 percent. Turnout, meanwhile, jumped to more than 67 percent of eligible voters, breaking the state’s 40-year record of 63 percent, set in 2008.
Voter registration soared,
enabling historic turnout
Georgia implemented automatic voter registration in 2016. Four years later, nearly all of the voting-eligible population is registered, and two-thirds cast a vote for president — breaking a decades-old record.
2016
2020
7.30 million
voting-eligible
population
7.38 million
voting-eligible
population
2%
22%
Eligible,
but not
registered
31%
19%
Registered,
but did
not vote
67%
59%
Voted
Note: 2020 vote data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: Edison Research, Georgia Secretary
of State, U.S. Elections Project.
Voter registration soared,
enabling historic turnout
Georgia implemented automatic voter registration in 2016. Four years later, nearly all of the voting-eligible population is registered, and two-thirds cast a vote for president — breaking a decades-old record.
2016
2020
7.30 million
voting-eligible
population
7.38 million
voting-eligible
population
2%
22%
Eligible,
but not registered
31%
19%
Registered,
but did not vote
67%
59%
Voted
Note: 2020 vote data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: Edison Research, Georgia Secretary of State,
U.S. Elections Project.
Voter registration soared, enabling historic turnout
Georgia implemented automatic voter registration in 2016. Four years later, nearly all of the voting-eligible population is registered, and two-thirds cast a vote for president — breaking a decades-old record.
2016
2020
7.30 million
voting-eligible
population
7.38 million
voting-eligible
population
Eligible, but
not registered
2%
22%
Eligible, but
not registered
Registered, but
did not vote
31%
19%
Registered, but
did not vote
67%
Voted
59%
Voted
Note: 2020 vote data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: Edison Research, Georgia Secretary of State, U.S. Elections Project.
Voter registration soared, enabling historic turnout
Georgia implemented automatic voter registration in 2016. Four years later, nearly all of the voting-eligible population is registered, and two-thirds cast a vote for president — breaking a decades-old record.
2016
2020
7.30 million
voting-eligible population
7.38 million
voting-eligible population
Eligible, but
not registered
2%
22%
Eligible, but
not registered
Registered, but
did not vote
31%
19%
Registered, but
did not vote
67%
Voted
59%
Voted
Note: 2020 vote data as of Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
Sources: Edison Research, Georgia Secretary of State, U.S. Elections Project.
[2020 turnout is on pace to break century-old records]
Demographic changes also help account for the Democratic shift. Over the last eight years, Atlanta and its Democratic-leaning suburbs have grown more populous as the rest of the state’s population has stagnated, according to a Washington Post analysis of census data.
The competitiveness of the presidential race has also played out in the state’s two Senate races, where Republican candidates in both contests were unable to secure enough votes to avoid runoffs. Those elections, to be held Jan. 5, will determine whether Democrats wrest control of the Senate, which would give the party control of both chambers of Congress along with the White House.
Even as Biden’s lead in the broader presidential contest became decisive on Saturday afternoon, Georgia’s outcome remained uncertain. Under Georgia law, a candidate can request a recount if the margin is less than 0.5 percent of votes cast. Biden leads the state by about 0.2 percentage points.
correction
A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that Fair Fight registered voters. The voting rights group instead fights voter suppression and works to mobilize voters.
