Decision Making in Natural Resource Management : a Structured, Adaptive Approach
This book is intended for use by natural resource managers and scientists, and students in the fields of natural resource management, ecology, and conservation biology, who are confronted with complex and difficult decision making problems. The book takes readers through the process of developing a structured approach to decision making, by firstly deconstructing decisions into component parts, which are each fully analyzed and then reassembled to form a working decision model. The book integrates common-sense ideas about problem definitions, such as the need for decisions to be driven by
1 online resource (476 pages)
9781118506233, 9780470671740, 9781299159174, 1118506235, 0470671742, 1299159176
827207638
Cover; Title page; Copyright page; Contents; List of boxes; Preface; Acknowledgements; Guide to using this book; Companion website; PART I.: Introduction To Decision Making; 1: Introduction: Why a Structured Approach in Natural Resources?; The role of decision making in natural resource management; Common mistakes in framing decisions; Poorly stated objectives; Prescriptive decisions; Confusion of values and science; Poor use of information; What is structured decision making (SDM)?; Why should we use a structured approach to decision making? Limitations of the structured approach to decision makingAdaptive resource management; Summary; References; 2: Elements of Structured Decision Making; First steps: defining the decision problem; General procedures for structured decision making; Predictive modeling: linking decisions to objectives prospectively; Uncertainty and how it affects decision making; Type of uncertainty; Dealing with uncertainty in decision making; Summary; References; 3: Identifying and Quantifying Objectives in Natural Resource Management; Identifying objectives; Identifying fundamental and means objectives. Clarifying objectivesSeparating objectives from science; Barriers to creative decision making; Types of fundamental objectives; Identifying decision alternatives; Quantifying objectives; Dealing with multiple objectives; Multi-attribute valuation; Utility functions; Determining weights by pricing out or indifference scores; Marginal gain; Swing weighting; Other approaches; Additional considerations; Decision, objectives, and predictive modeling; References; 4: Working with Stakeholders in Natural Resource Management; Stakeholders and natural resource decision making; Why involve stakeholders? Stakeholder analysisStakeholder governance; Working with stakeholders; Characteristics of good facilitators; Getting at stakeholder values; Stakeholder meetings; The first workshop; References; Additional reading; PART II.: Tools for Decision Making and Analysis; 5: Statistics and Decision Making; Basic statistical ideas and terminology; Probability; Probability distributions; Using data in statistical models for description and prediction; Why you should look at your data?; Linear models; Hierarchical models; Shrinkage estimators, sharing information; Bayesian inference. Example
Binomial likelihood with a beta prior on pHierarchical and random effects models; Resampling and simulation methods; Statistical significance; References; Additional reading; 6: Modeling the Influence of Decisions; Structuring decisions; Influence diagrams; Frequent mistakes when structuring decisions; Defining node states; Decision trees; Solving a decision model; Conditional independence and modularity; Parameterizing decision models; Elicitation of expert judgment; Quantifying uncertainty in expert judgment; Group elicitation; The care and handling of experts; References
Additional reading