A theoretical introduction (Multi-secular cycles in historical and modern societies ; Modeling structural-demographic processes) -- Overview of structural demographic variables: 1780-2010 (Demography and wellbeing ; Elite dynamics -- State -- dynamics of sociopolitical instability) -- A complete secular cycle: from the revolution to the great depression, c.1780-1930 (Long-term trends, 1780-1930 : synthesis ; Antebellum Era ; Road to civil war : a dynamical model of Antebellum America ; From the gilded age tothe new deal) -- Current secular cycle : from the great depression to the present, c.1930-2010 (Long-term trends, 1930 -- 2010 : a synthesis ; From the new deal to the reagan revolution : a dynamical model ; social pressure towards instability : from the reagan revolution to the troubles of our times ; Conclusion ; two ages of discord)
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by Rossdavidh (GoodReads user published 2020-08-01 )
30 of 30 people found this review helpful
[review after a reread in 2020]
So, reading this book in 2014 (a preprint that he posted on his website), has ever since given me an ominous feeling about the year 2020. It's not as if Turchin actually claimed to be able to predict the precise year in which our political crisis would hit a peak, but <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/1796955228">more...</a>
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by Taylor (GoodReads user published 2020-08-09 )
13 of 13 people found this review helpful
I'm a sucker for the "grand theory of everything" book genre. The downside to the genre is that all the books in it are wrong. The upside is that some of them manage to be wrong in interesting and new ways which is a pretty impressive achievement in my mind.
Ages of Discord is one such book that seek<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/3476086227">more...</a>
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by Aaron (GoodReads user published 2019-03-12 )
9 of 9 people found this review helpful
If anyone can claim to be making Isaac Asimov's dream of psychohistory manifest it's Turchin, who has done more work to create a truly scientific and predictive theory of macrohistorical patterns than probably anyone else. While this is of course impossible in the strictly Asimovian sense of being a<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/2748058304">more...</a>
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